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Mesoscale Discussion 293
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0293
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0454 PM CDT FRI APR 04 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR EAST CENTRAL-SERN OH...NRN WV PANHANDLE AND WRN
   PA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 042154Z - 042330Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS REMAIN
   POSSIBLE INTO THE EARLY EVENING /AROUND 00Z/ FROM FAR EAST
   CENTRAL-SERN OH INTO WRN PA.  LIMITED THREAT POTENTIAL AND SHORT
   DURATION PRECLUDES THE NEED FOR A WATCH.

   DISCUSSION...A NARROW WARM SECTOR...WITH RELATIVELY STEEP LOW LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES...REMAINS ACROSS FAR ERN OH INTO WRN PA AHEAD OF A COLD
   FRONT ADVANCING EWD THROUGH THE UPPER OH VALLEY AND A COOLER...MORE
   STABLE AIR MASS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF THE PITTSBURGH METRO
   AREA.  STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO A NEGATIVELY-TILTED
   TROUGH TRACKING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WITH 60 METER 500-MB HEIGHT
   FALLS INTO WRN PA WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS AND
   EMBEDDED TSTMS UNTIL 00-01Z.  FAST MOVEMENT OF THE CONVECTION /40-45
   KT/ COMBINED WITH ANY DOWNDRAFT AND/OR MOMENTUM TRANSFER...GIVEN
   30-40 KT W/SWLY WINDS AT 0.5 KM AGL PER AREA VWPS...WILL SUPPORT
   LOCALLY STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS. 

   BY 00-01Z...DIURNAL COOLING/WEAKENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH THE
   LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND/OR THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
   RESULT IN A DECREASE IN THE OVERALL THREAT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS.

   ..PETERS/THOMPSON.. 04/04/2014


   ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...

   LAT...LON   39648185 40298113 41148071 41338042 41958033 42197991
               42297968 41847941 41447943 40677955 40027986 39738012
               39638145 39648185 

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Page last modified: April 04, 2014
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