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Mesoscale Discussion 293
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0293
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0516 PM CDT MON APR 13 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH CENTRAL TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 132216Z - 140015Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
   CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH-CENTRAL TX THIS AFTERNOON
   AND EVENING.  A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED SOON.

   DISCUSSION...WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED IN THE PAST
   COUPLE OF HOURS ALONG AND NORTH OF WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING ROUGHLY
   FROM 35 NW SJT - 10 NE TPL - GGG.  ALTHOUGH THE STORMS ARE GENERALLY
   ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY AND ARE ELEVATED IN NATURE...RADAR
   SIGNATURES SUGGEST AN INCREASING RISK OF LARGE HAIL IN THE STRONGEST
   CORES.  MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES
   OF 40-50 KNOTS WILL MAINTAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED/SUPERCELL
   STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL THROUGH THE EVENING ALONG THIS NARROW
   CORRIDOR.

   ..HART/BROYLES.. 04/13/2015


   ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...MAF...

   LAT...LON   32260051 32159842 32219665 32189585 31899559 31429586
               31179749 31450018 31910099 32260051 

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