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Mesoscale Discussion 293
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0293
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0622 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN OK...SERN KS...FAR SWRN MO AND NWRN AR

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 58...

   VALID 302322Z - 310015Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 58
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND
   GUSTS OVER NRN PORTIONS OF WATCH 58 REMAINS FOCUSED ACROSS SERN KS
   AND NERN OK. THIS THREAT COULD EXTEND E OF THE WATCH BY 00-01Z...BUT
   IT IS UNCERTAIN IF A NEW WW WILL BE NEEDED.

   DISCUSSION...LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS REMAIN THE PRIMARY
   THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH SCATTERED TSTMS ACROSS NERN OK AND SERN KS.
   THE MOST INTENSE STORM OVER THE PAST COUPLE HRS OCCURRED OVER OSAGE
   COUNTY OK...BUT HAS SINCE WEAKENED WITH EWD PROGRESSION INTO A
   SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS OWING TO EARLIER PRECIPITATION. BRIEF
   UPWARD PULSES IN CONVECTION ACROSS KS HAVE BEEN NOTED...BUT TSTMS
   HAVE GENERALLY STRUGGLED TO MAINTAIN A SUSTAINED SVR THREAT THUS
   FAR. MORE RECENT DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN FOCUSED FARTHER WEST ALONG THE
   DRYLINE AND THESE STORMS HAVE APPEARED TO BECOME DOMINANT.

   LATEST TRENDS SUGGEST CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE PROGRESSING EWD
   INTO FAR SERN KS AND NERN OK...AND EVENTUALLY SWRN MO/FAR NWRN AR
   AFTER 01Z. AIR MASS RECOVERY IN THE WAKE OF PRECIPITATION MOVING
   INTO S-CNTRL MO REMAINS UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY WITH THE LOSS OF
   DIURNAL HEATING IMMINENT. HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR PRIMARILY
   LARGE HAIL COULD CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THESE AREAS GIVEN THE PRESENCE
   OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. STRONG WIND GUST AND TORNADO
   POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE RELATIVELY WEAKER GIVEN THE COOL
   BOUNDARY-LAYER. IT IS UNCERTAIN IF MORE THAN A LOCALIZED SVR RISK
   WILL MATERIALIZE...BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
   MONITORED.

   ..ROGERS/CORFIDI.. 03/30/2016


   ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

   LAT...LON   37869612 38179511 38259442 38079371 37149387 35839473
               35579560 35579664 36049715 37169705 37869612 

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Page last modified: March 31, 2016
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