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Mesoscale Discussion 294
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0294
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0334 PM CDT SAT APR 05 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LA...SRN MS...SRN AL...WRN FL PANHANDLE

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 052034Z - 052200Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A BAND OF STRONG CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO ADVANCE NWD
   ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF LA/MS/AL/FL PANHANDLE OVER THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS.  HAIL APPROACHING SEVERE LEVELS IS THE GREATEST THREAT WITH
   THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY.

   DISCUSSION...AN ELONGATED W-E CORRIDOR OF CONVECTION...ROUGHLY 75 MI
   WIDE...IS ADVANCING SLOWLY NWD TOWARD THE CNTRL GULF COAST.  THIS
   BAND OF STORMS HAS EVOLVED NORTH OF A SFC BOUNDARY AND APPEARS TO BE
   DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION.  IN THE ABSENCE
   OF OTHER MEANINGFUL FORCING...CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH
   OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH POSSIBLE STRENGTHENING ACROSS LA WHERE
   850MB FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE EVENING.  LATEST
   WDSSII DATA SUGGESTS ISOLATED HAIL CORES HAVE EVOLVED WITH THE
   STRONGEST ACTIVITY BUT SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LEVELS. 
   EVEN SO...HAIL COULD APPROACH 1 INCH AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY WITHIN
   THE STRONGER WARM ADVECTION.

   ..DARROW/MEAD.. 04/05/2014


   ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...LIX...LCH...

   LAT...LON   29699303 30579132 30888923 30848680 30238592 29738675
               29478949 28859265 29699303 

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Page last modified: April 05, 2014
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