MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0294
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0341 AM CDT SAT MAR 23 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MS AND PORTIONS OF NRN AL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 230841Z - 230945Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...ISOLATED SVR TSTMS POSING A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL WILL
   CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z. WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE ISOLATED
   NATURE OF THE THREAT.
   
   DISCUSSION...ISOLATED SVR TSTM OVER FRANKLIN COUNTY IN AL HAS
   DEVELOPED WITHIN WARM/MOIST-ADVECTION REGIME AIDED BY ASCENT
   ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK IMPULSE EMBEDDED IN WSWLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS
   AREA IS NORTH OF A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM A WEAK
   SURFACE LOW OVER EAST TEXAS EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN LA TO SOUTH OF
   MOB. ALTHOUGH THIS STORM HAS RECENTLY WEAKENED...STRENGTHENING
   LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW HAS RESULTED IN EFFECTIVE SHEAR RANGING FROM
   35-40 KTS OVER NRN PORTIONS OF DISCUSSION AREA TO 55KT OVER SRN
   PORTIONS. MUCAPE VALUES WERE BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG FOR UPDRAFTS
   ROOTED AROUND 925 MB. CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION WILL
   RESULT IN AN ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SVR
   STORMS WITH MID-LEVEL ROTATION AND A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL THROUGH
   12Z.  THE OVERALL SVR THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED AND THUS
   A WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.
   
   ..BUNTING/THOMPSON.. 03/23/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...
   
   LAT...LON   34928816 34958677 34768661 34558628 34038623 33398642
               33268653 33048758 33108845 33208977 33419100 33899081
               34319057 34818986 34928816