Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 295
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 295 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0295
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0434 AM CDT SUN APR 06 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SRN TX...WRN LA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 060934Z - 061200Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...INCREASING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THROUGH
   14Z/9 AM CDT. LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.
   IF SUSTAINED AND DISCRETE CELLS CAN BECOME ESTABLISHED /POSING A
   MORE SUBSTANTIAL HAIL THREAT/...THEN A WW IS POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...MESOANALYSIS AT 09Z PLACED A WARM FRONT JUST SOUTH OF
   THE UPPER TX COAST AND EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS DEEP S TX.
   SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW WAS RESULTING IN A NWD FLUX OF HIGHER THETA-E
   AIR NORTH OF THE FRONT AND RESULTING IN MUCAPES OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG
   ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. REGIONAL RADAR VWP DATA SAMPLED MORE
   THAN SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR /EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AVERAGING 50
   KTS/ TO SUPPORT TSTMS WITH MID-LEVEL ROTATION AND...COMBINED WITH
   MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.5 TO 8 DEG C/KM...WILL SUPPORT AN
   ISOLATED/WIDELY SCT SVR HAIL THREAT THIS MORNING. MODEST HEIGHT
   FALLS COMBINED WITH LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD RESULT IN A
   CONTINUED INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE THROUGH 14Z.

   CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AND A WW IS POSSIBLE
   IF SUSTAINED DISCRETE CELLS /POSING A MORE SUBSTANTIAL HAIL THREAT/
   CAN DEVELOP.

   ..BUNTING/CORFIDI.. 04/06/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...

   LAT...LON   32319654 32339580 32349516 32279473 32069425 31639360
               31189334 30509345 30129371 29819452 29669518 29419620
               29309689 29299761 29479808 29889858 30439896 31009901
               31409901 32029854 32249773 32319654 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: April 06, 2014
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities