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Mesoscale Discussion 295
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0295
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0837 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN OK...SERN KS...SWRN MO...FAR NWRN AR

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 64...

   VALID 310137Z - 310230Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 64
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE SVR THREAT WILL BE MAXIMIZED ACROSS NERN OK INTO FAR
   SERN KS OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HRS...AND SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE WITH
   EWD PROGRESSION INTO SWRN MO AND FAR NWRN AR.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW A LONG-LIVED SUPERCELL WITH
   ACCOMPANYING LOCALIZED TORNADO POTENTIAL ACROSS MAYES COUNTY OK.
   CONVECTION FARTHER N INTO SERN KS APPEARS LESS ORGANIZED
   OVERALL...ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUST POTENTIAL MAY
   STILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST UPDRAFT CORES. THE THERMODYNAMIC
   ENVIRONMENT BECOMES LESS FAVORABLE WITH EWD PROGRESSION INTO A
   COOLER AIR MASS...CHARACTERIZED BY SFC TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW-MID
   60S F. THIS TREND IS ALSO CAPTURED WELL BY RECENT SFC MESOANALYSIS
   DATA...FOCUSING THE AXIS OF HIGHEST INSTABILITY ACROSS E-CNTRL OK
   AND DECREASING TO THE E. THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO MARGINALLY SVR
   TSTMS SHOULD PERSIST INTO SWRN MO AND FAR NWRN AR OVER THE NEXT
   COUPLE HRS. VWP DATA FROM KINX AND KSGF INDICATE 0-1 KM SRH VALUES
   OF 350-400 M2/S2 ARE PRESENT OVER THE REGION...SUFFICIENT FOR A
   BRIEF TORNADO THREAT IF SFC-BASED PARCELS CAN BE MAINTAINED WITHIN
   THE COOLER BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR.

   ..ROGERS.. 03/31/2016


   ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...

   LAT...LON   37949381 37589360 36599367 36149378 36059441 36109534
               36409588 36929597 37709536 38009484 37949381 

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Page last modified: March 31, 2016
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