MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0295
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0738 AM CDT SAT MAR 23 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN FL PANHANDLE AND EXTREME SRN AL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 231238Z - 231415Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SVR TSTMS DEVELOPING ALONG A
   NORTHWARD-MOVING WARM WILL POSE A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
   HAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. CONDITIONS ARE BEING
   MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.
   
   DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TSTMS WERE DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY OF A
   WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM SRN LA TO JUST SOUTH OF THE COAST OF THE
   WESTERN FL PANHANDLE. A SLOW NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT IS
   EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. LATEST MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS AN
   ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF CONTINUED TSTM DEVELOPMENT AND
   INTENSIFICATION WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 60 KTS AS SAMPLED BY
   THE KMOB AND KTLH WSR-88DS AND 1000-1500 J/KG OF MUCAPE BASED ON
   MESOANALYSIS. ALTHOUGH FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
   DISTURBANCES IN THE STRENGTHENING MID-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW REMAINS
   LARGELY TO THE NORTH OF THIS AREA THIS MORNING...MODEST WARM
   ADVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN
   ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. SUPERCELL
   STRUCTURES ARE POSSIBLE WITH A RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
   GIVEN STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON THE 12Z KTLH SOUNDING AND PW
   VALUES OF 1.4 INCHES.
   
   ..BUNTING/THOMPSON.. 03/23/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...
   
   LAT...LON   31018840 31318798 31378717 31258608 31118510 30908452
               30678415 30338395 30048395 29858408 29548472 29488527
               30058626 30228771 30268829 31018840