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Mesoscale Discussion 295
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0295
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1130 PM CDT MON APR 13 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...DEEP SOUTH TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 140430Z - 140700Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL MAY PERSIST
   OVERNIGHT.  AREAL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW...SO WATCH ISSUANCE
   IS UNLIKELY.  HOWEVER...TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR LOOPS SHOW AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL STORM
   OVER ZAVALA/DIMMIT COUNTIES...NORTH OF LRD.  HAIL HAS BEEN REPORTED
   WITH THIS STORM.  MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WEAK IMPULSES ROTATING
   AROUND AN UPPER TROUGH OVER WEST TX WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
   REGION MOST OF THE NIGHT...WITH THE RISK OF OTHER STRONG/SEVERE
   STORMS.  MODERATE MUCAPE VALUES AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR OVER 45 KT
   SUPPORT A RISK OF ROTATING STORMS PRODUCING HAIL.  CURRENT ACTIVITY
   IS QUITE ISOLATED...SO WATCH ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. 
   HOWEVER...RECENT HRRR AND OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE
   POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT SEVERAL
   HOURS.  IF TRENDS WARRANT...A WATCH MIGHT NEED TO BE CONSIDERED.

   ..HART/BROYLES.. 04/14/2015


   ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO...

   LAT...LON   28660046 29329889 28489789 27019799 26709897 26869938
               27559967 28660046 

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Page last modified: April 14, 2015
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