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Mesoscale Discussion 296
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0296
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0839 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN LA..SERN AR...FAR WRN MS

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 60...63...

   VALID 310139Z - 310315Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 60...63...CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...PARTS OF TORNADO WATCH 60 MAY BE REPLACED WITH A NEW
   TORNADO WATCH PRIOR TO 03Z SCHEDULED EXPIRATION FOR A PERSISTENT
   LONG-DURATION/LOW-PROBABILITY TORNADO RISK.

   DISCUSSION...SEVERAL CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS ARE ONGOING WITHIN A
   BROADER CONVECTIVE MASS FROM THE MID-SOUTH SWWD TO NE TX. 00Z SHV
   RAOB SAMPLED A RELATIVELY FAVORABLE TORNADO ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE
   AROUND 1500 J/KG AND 0-1 KM SRH AROUND 200-250 M2/S2. HOWEVER...THE
   MESSY CLUSTER CONVECTIVE MODE HAS GENERALLY YIELDED TRANSIENT
   EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. THIS TYPE OF MODE WILL LIKELY PERSIST
   INTO THE OVERNIGHT GIVEN REGENERATIVE CONVECTION OCCURRING WITHIN
   PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE BANDS. THE PRIMARY TORNADO THREAT AREA SHOULD
   SHIFT SLOWLY E AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS BECOMES INCREASINGLY VEERED /A
   PROCESS THAT APPEARS TO BE UNDERWAY FROM THE SHV AREA WWD PER VWP
   DATA/. THE COMPARATIVELY LONGEST DURATION TORNADO RISK WILL PROBABLY
   BE CENTERED ALONG THE SERN PORTION OF THE LARGE-SCALE CONVECTIVE
   PLUME /OVER THE ARK-LA-MISS REGION/ INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

   ..GRAMS/CORFIDI.. 03/31/2016


   ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

   LAT...LON   32319413 32719384 33139295 33559234 34189146 34219116
               34079081 33559062 32969065 32529079 32109159 31859257
               31829350 31899395 32319413 

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Page last modified: March 31, 2016
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