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Mesoscale Discussion 296
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0296
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0337 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF E TX AND ADJACENT WRN LA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 142037Z - 142115Z

   CORRECTED FOR WEB GRAPHIC

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED/LOW-END SEVERE RISK IS EVIDENT INVOF THE SABINE
   RIVER VALLEY OF E TX/WRN LA.  LIMITED NATURE OF THE RISK SUGGESTS
   THAT A WW WILL NOT BE REQUIRED.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER
   E TX ATTM...ALONG REMNANTS OF THE OLD SYNOPTIC FRONT N OF AN ONGOING
   AREA OF PRECIPITATION FROM SERN TX AND THE WRN GULF EWD ACROSS THE
   LOWER MS VALLEY.  

   CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THIS REGION DESPITE A
   FAVORABLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...BUT EARLIER BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
   COVER HAVE ALLOWED A CORRIDOR OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG CAPE TO DEVELOP --
   NEAR AND W OF THE KPOE /FORT POLK LA/ VICINITY.  THIS LOCAL
   DESTABILIZATION IS FUELING A RECENT UPTICK IN CONVECTION --
   INCLUDING A SMALL/WEAKLY ROTATING CELL NOW OVER ERN SHELBY CO TX
   THAT IS SHIFTING ENEWD TOWARD THE SABINE RIVER ATTM.

   WITH VEERING/INCREASING FLOW WITH HEIGHT YIELDING AMPLE SHEAR FOR
   UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION/ROTATION...LIMITED RISK FOR A LOCALLY DAMAGING
   WIND GUST APPEARS POSSIBLE WITH ONE OR TWO OF THE STRONGER CELLS
   WHICH EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.  IN ADDITION...GIVEN THE
   AFOREMENTIONED MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND ELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW /E
   OF THE WEAK SURFACE LOW/ THAT VEERS TO SWLY THROUGH 1-1.5
   KM...SPIN-UP OF A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO IS NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE
   QUESTION.  WITH THAT SAID HOWEVER...THE OVERALL MARGINAL NATURE OF
   THE BACKGROUND ENVIRONMENT SUGGESTS THAT ANY THREAT WILL REMAIN
   LIMITED SUCH THAT WW ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

   ..GOSS/GRAMS.. 04/14/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...

   LAT...LON   31129387 31669455 32159488 32419380 32209237 31639236
               31099336 31129387 

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Page last modified: April 14, 2015
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