Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 297
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 297 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0297
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0329 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...NERN SOUTH CAROLINA...FAR
   SOUTHERN VIRGINIA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 142029Z - 142115Z

   CORRECTED FOR WEB GRAPHIC

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING IN COVERAGE...BUT ONLY A
   MARGINAL SEVERE WIND THREAT IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

   DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
   DEVELOPED IN THE WEAKLY-CAPPED WARM SECTOR OF A WEAK FRONTAL WAVE
   ANALYZED OVER THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS.  ALTHOUGH SURFACE-BASED CAPE
   VALUES SOUTH OF THE FRONT HAVE INCREASED TO 1000-1500 J/KG UNDER
   THIN HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS...LOW-TO-MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
   EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES REMAIN WEAK AND WILL PRECLUDE AN ORGANIZED
   SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. OVER CNTRL NC/NERN SC...A SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT
   IN LOW-TO-MID LEVEL WESTERLIES EVIDENT IN KGSP VAD WIND PROFILES MAY
   SUPPORT MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS IN THE STRONGER MULTICELLULAR
   CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES.  OVER ERN NC...EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES WILL
   REMAIN MODEST...ONLY 20-30 KT...BUT STORMS ARE MORE NUMEROUS
   RESULTING FROM STRONGER HEATING...AND ORGANIZATION OF COLD POOLS
   COULD SUPPORT LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.  OTHERWISE COVERAGE OF
   SEVERE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED AND A WATCH IS NOT
   ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

   ..CONIGLIO/KERR/GRAMS.. 04/14/2015


   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CHS...CAE...GSP...

   LAT...LON   36588062 36827993 36847776 36917607 36597525 36087502
               35347518 34927603 34487689 34257782 33917869 33467979
               33548060 33798141 34428157 35038133 35518127 36178108
               36588062 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: April 14, 2015
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities