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Mesoscale Discussion 297
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0297
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1048 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...SW MO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 64...

   VALID 310348Z - 310445Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 64
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...PRIMARY NEAR-TERM DAMAGING WIND RISK EXISTS WITH A
   SMALL-SCALE BOWING SEGMENT. OTHERWISE...MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL AND
   LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS MAY CONTINUE FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS...BUT
   OVERALL RISK SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. A LOCAL TEMPORAL EXTENSION
   IS POSSIBLE BEYOND 05Z SCHEDULED EXPIRATION.

   DISCUSSION...SMALL-SCALE BOWING LINE SEGMENT CENTERED OVER ERN
   CEDAR/DADE COUNTIES AS OF 0340Z HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
   WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY ROOTED FROM ELEVATED PARCELS PER 02Z
   SGF RAOB ATOP A COMPARATIVELY COOL/DRY SURFACE LAYER. EVEN SO...THE
   PRESENCE OF 60-70 KT WINDS AROUND 6-KM AGL PER SGF VWP DATA HAS
   SUPPORTED AN ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURE AMID WEAK ELEVATED BUOYANCY.
   IT IS PLAUSIBLE THAT UPSTREAM ACTIVITY CENTERED OVER JASPER/NEWTON
   COUNTY...WHILE WELL BEHIND THE LEADING CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW AT
   PRESENT...MAY DEVELOP A SIMILAR ORGANIZED STRUCTURE FOR A COUPLE
   HOURS. BUT GIVEN INSTABILITY DECREASING WITH ERN EXTENT...THE
   OVERALL RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT.

   ..GRAMS.. 03/31/2016


   ATTN...WFO...SGF...

   LAT...LON   37689372 37989318 37969275 37819242 37439259 37029328
               36819378 36819421 36959449 37299378 37689372 

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Page last modified: March 31, 2016
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