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Mesoscale Discussion 298
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0298
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1130 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...ARK-LA-MISS

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 63...65...

   VALID 310430Z - 310530Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 63...65...CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...A TORNADO AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT SHOULD PERSIST
   FOR AT LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS CENTERED ON THE ARKLAMISS REGION.

   DISCUSSION...A MESSY CLUSTER CONVECTIVE MODE HAS
   PERSISTED...ALTHOUGH A RECENT INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION OCCURRED
   DURING THE PAST HALF HOUR WITH AN EMBEDDED MID-LEVEL MESOCYCLONE
   OVER FAR SERN AR. PRESENCE OF 60-KT LOW-LEVEL WINDS PER AREA VWP
   DATA AND SURFACE DEW POINTS AOA 66 DEG F SHOULD SUPPORT TRANSIENT
   SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AND AN ACCOMPANYING TORNADO/WIND THREAT WITH
   THIS ACTIVITY...AS WELL AS UPSTREAM CONVECTION REGENERATING WITHIN A
   CONFLUENT WARM CONVEYOR STEADILY PROGRESSING E ACROSS THE LOWER MS
   VALLEY.

   WITH ERN EXTENT INTO CNTRL MS...SURFACE DEW POINTS HAVE STRUGGLED TO
   INCREASE IN SPITE OF SSELY WINDS. AS SUCH...CONVECTION MAY BECOME
   INCREASINGLY ELEVATED WITH NERN EXTENT AS MODIFIED 00Z JAN RAOB
   SUGGESTS AT LEAST MID 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL BE NECESSARY FOR
   APPRECIABLE SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY.

   ..GRAMS.. 03/31/2016


   ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LIX...LZK...SHV...

   LAT...LON   33019179 33369161 33689140 33989116 34249053 34139031
               33879028 33449042 32779043 32259050 31369109 31259177
               31689189 31989196 33019179 

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Page last modified: March 31, 2016
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