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Mesoscale Discussion 298
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0298
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0624 PM CDT SUN APR 06 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN
   MISSISSIPPI....SOUTHERN ALABAMA...AND FAR WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 062324Z - 070130Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE OVER THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS...INCREASING IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE EVENING. TORNADOES...A
   FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE SURFACE WARM FRONT
   /LOCATED ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AT 23 UTC/ IS BEGINNING TO
   LIFT NORTHWARD. SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...THE AIRMASS IS
   CHARACTERIZED BY SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY OF UP TO 2000 J/KG...DEEP
   LAYER SHEAR VALUES AT OR ABOVE 45 KTS...AND EFFECTIVE STORM-RELATIVE
   HELICITY VALUES BETWEEN 200-300 M2/S2. GIVEN THIS FAVORABLE
   ENVIRONMENT...WITH THE INITIATION OF SURFACE BASED CONVECTION
   BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS /INCLUDING
   SUPERCELLS/...A TORNADO WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.

   ..MARSH/THOMPSON.. 04/06/2014


   ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

   LAT...LON   30819187 31359105 31548866 31308701 30908609 30238561
               29618628 29108870 29289109 30279214 30819187 

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Page last modified: April 07, 2014
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