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Mesoscale Discussion 298
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0298
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0342 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/NRN UTAH...INCLUDING THE SALT LAKE CITY
   AREA...SERN IDAHO...WRN WY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 142042Z - 142145Z

   CORRECTED FOR WEB GRAPHIC

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...LOCALIZED...POTENTIALLY DAMAGING...SURFACE GUSTS MAY
   ACCOMPANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. 
   THIS MAY INCLUDE THE SALT LAKE CITY AREA AS EARLY AS 21-22Z.

   DISCUSSION...DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING IS NOW WELL UNDERWAY WITHIN
   A NARROW PRE-FRONTAL CORRIDOR ACROSS THE GREAT SALT LAKE
   DESERT...NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN WYOMING. 
   DESPITE THE RATHER LOW MOISTURE CONTENT PRESENT WITHIN THIS AIR
   MASS...IT DOES APPEAR THAT STRONG DIFFERENTIAL THERMAL ADVECTION AND
   FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...ASSOCIATED WITH THE VIGOROUS
   SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW TURNING EAST OF THE GREAT BASIN...WILL BE
   SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS
   AFTERNOON. THIS APPEARS POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS 21-22Z.  BASED ON
   VARIOUS FORECAST SOUNDINGS...IT REMAINS UNCLEAR HOW MUCH LIGHTNING
   WILL BE PRODUCED BY THIS ACTIVITY.  HOWEVER...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES
   CHARACTERIZED BY VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE DEEP
   SURFACE-BASED...SUB-CLOUD LAYER...PROBABLY WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
   STRONG CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED SURFACE GUSTS.  GIVEN 40-50 KT MEAN
   LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW...THE DOWNWARD TRANSPORT OF
   MOMENTUM...AIDED BY EVAPORATIVE COOLING OF PRECIPITATION...MAY
   SUPPORT AT LEAST OCCASIONAL LOCALIZED GUSTS IN EXCESS OF SEVERE
   LIMITS.

   ..KERR/GRAMS.. 04/14/2015


   ATTN...WFO...RIW...SLC...PIH...

   LAT...LON   40571318 41221251 42431158 43251135 43661092 43211003
               42630971 42020964 40771075 39081272 39141348 40571318 

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Page last modified: April 14, 2015
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