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Mesoscale Discussion 299
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0299
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0716 PM CDT SUN APR 06 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PERMIAN BASIN IN TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 070016Z - 070115Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A MARGINAL HAIL/WIND THREAT WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH IN THE
   NEXT 1-2 HOURS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES WITH THE LOSS OF
   SURFACE HEATING.

   DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED/PERSISTED ALONG AND
   ON THE IMMEDIATE COOL SIDE OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT IS DRIFTING
   SWWD TOWARD THE PECOS AND RIO GRANDE VALLEYS.  DESPITE BEING ON THE
   COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY...SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE HEATING EARLIER THIS
   AFTERNOON...COMBINED WITH RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE
   40S...HAS SUPPORTED AT LEAST WEAK SURFACE-BASED BUOYANCY /CAPE OF
   250-500 J PER KG/.  STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES BENEATH A MIDLEVEL
   TROUGH AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR APPROACHING 40 KT ARE FAVORABLE FOR
   SPLITTING SUPERCELLS...THOUGH THE LACK OF MOISTURE AND LIMITED
   BUOYANCY WILL LIMIT THE RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL.  OTHERWISE...THE RISK
   FOR BOTH HAIL AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY
   LATE EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES WITH THE LOSS OF
   DAYTIME HEATING.

   ..THOMPSON.. 04/07/2014


   ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

   LAT...LON   31410081 30820056 30070024 29810029 29720061 30160107
               31000156 31800190 32260194 32610173 32680146 32470116
               31880099 31410081 

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Page last modified: April 07, 2014
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