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Mesoscale Discussion 299
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0299
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0304 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MS/PART OF SOUTHERN LA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 310804Z - 310930Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL BE COORDINATED FOR PARTS OF
   EASTERN AND SOUTHERN MS INTO SOUTHEAST LA.

   DISCUSSION...AT 740Z...MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED THE LEADING BAND
   OF STORMS EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST MS INTO
   SOUTH-CENTRAL LA.  EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AND LARGE LOW-LEVEL
   HODOGRAPH CURVATURE PER JAN VWP DATA...GIVEN A 60-KT SLY LOW-LEVEL
   JET VEERING TO SOUTHWESTERLY AT MIDLEVELS...ARE QUITE STRONG AND A
   CONCERN FOR A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.  THESE KINEMATICS ARE
   SUPPORTIVE FOR STORM ROTATIONS...AS HAS BEEN EVIDENT WITH A STORM
   MOVING FROM HINDS COUNTY INTO NORTHERN RANKIN COUNTY MS..WHICH HAD
   40-KT WSWLY WINDS AT 1000 FT AGL WITHIN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
   THE MIDLEVEL MESOCYCLONE.  IN ADDITION...A STORM IN NORTHWEST ACADIA
   PARISH LA INDICATED WEAK ROTATION WITH A TENDENCY TO BECOME A
   SUPERCELL.  

   DESPITE THESE FAVORABLE KINEMATICS FOR A CONTINUED TORNADO POTENTIAL
   AND DAMAGING WINDS...OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SHOWED WEAK SURFACE-3 KM
   LAPSE RATES /LESS THAN 5 C PER KM/ SUGGESTING THE STATIC STABILITY
   OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS BEEN TENDING TO LIMIT STORMS FROM
   PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE LAST 3 TO 3.5 HOURS. 
   HOWEVER...PERSISTENT MOISTENING ALONG THE LOW-LEVEL JET WITH THE
   RECENT RAP INDICATING SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL RISE INTO THE MIDDLE
   60S ACROSS SOUTHEAST MS PRIOR TO SUNRISE COULD SUPPORT SURFACE-BASED
   STORMS.  THIS LATTER FACTOR COMBINED WITH THE STRONGLY SHEARED
   ENVIRONMENT SUGGESTS A TORNADO WATCH SHOULD BE ISSUED ACROSS
   SOUTHEAST MS AND PART OF SOUTHEAST LA.

   ..PETERS/GOSS.. 03/31/2016


   ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...

   LAT...LON   30669169 31459109 32858972 33008840 31978854 30678933
               30438958 30429005 30499061 30669169 

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Page last modified: March 31, 2016
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