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Mesoscale Discussion 299
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0299
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0447 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SE AL...FL PANHANDLE...SW GA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 142147Z - 142315Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IS MOVING EWD AT AROUND 15-20
   KNOTS ACROSS ACROSS SRN AL AND FL PANHANDLE.  WW NOT EXPECTED DUE TO
   THE BRIEF AND ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT.

   DISCUSSION...A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE
   LEADING EDGE OF A COLD POOL FROM NEAR TOI TO 20 E PNS AND ALSO
   EASTWARD ACROSS SE AL AND SW GA.  STORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN AN
   ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MUCAPE APPROACHING 3000
   J/KG...SUGGESTING AT LEAST SOME MARGINAL SEVERE WIND AND HAIL THREAT
   WITH THE STRONGEST CONVECTION. MEAGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF ABOUT
   20-30 KNOTS IS CURRENTLY LIMITING STORM ORGANIZATION AND SEVERE
   POTENTIAL AS CELLS FORMING ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE EWD-MOVING
   COLD POOL ARE ALMOST IMMEDIATELY UNDERCUT.  SOME SEVERE THREAT
   EXISTS WITH THESE STORMS THROUGH SUNSET...PARTICULARLY WITH
   CONVECTION OUT AHEAD OF COLD POOL IN AREA OF CONFLUENCE ACROSS SW GA
   AND SE AL.  GIVEN THE BRIEF AND ISOLATED NATURE OF THIS THREAT
   HOWEVER...WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

   ..COOK/PICCA/HART.. 04/14/2015


   ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

   LAT...LON   30568703 30808705 31258683 31828646 32018601 31958504
               31898411 31698379 31248343 30718354 30348383 30068431
               29988486 30118575 30288656 30438694 30568703 

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Page last modified: April 14, 2015
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