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Mesoscale Discussion 300
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0300
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0747 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN MS AND SOUTHWEST AL

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 66...

   VALID 311247Z - 311345Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 66 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT AND POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
   WINDS OR HAIL ARE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF WW 66 FROM
   MARION AND PEARL RIVER COUNTIES TO FORREST COUNTY.  THUNDERSTORMS
   WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHEAST MS INTO
   SOUTHWEST AL THIS MORNING...THOUGH OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS
   LIMITED AT THIS TIME.  NEW WATCH ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY...THOUGH
   CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.

   DISCUSSION...THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF A COLD POOL ATTENDANT TO A LARGE
   AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MIDDLE TN TO SOUTHERN MS
   EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL AL TO WASHINGTON COUNTY AL TO WASHINGTON
   PARISH LA.  A FEW STORMS IN VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY IN SOUTHEAST
   LA FROM 1030-12Z...FROM EAST FELICIANA PARISH TO WASHINGTON PARISH
   INDICATED STORM ROTATIONS PER TRENDS IN RADAR IMAGERY.  THE
   DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT HAS BEEN GRADUALLY MOISTENING/DESTABILIZING
   WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS NOW IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S ACROSS
   SOUTHEAST MS AND FAR SOUTHWEST AL...RESULTING IN MUCAPE OF 500-1000
   J/KG.  DESPITE MODEST INSTABILITY...THE PRESENCE OF STRONG
   DEEP-LAYER AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR /EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 45-50 KT AND
   EFFECTIVE SRH EXCEEDING 400 M2/S2 PER 12Z SLIDELL SOUNDING/ SUGGESTS
   AN ISOLATED TORNADO AND/OR DAMAGING WIND THREAT CANNOT BE RULED OUT
   WITH EASTWARD EXTENT.

   THE STRONGEST STORM PER SLIDELL AND JACKSON RADAR DATA WAS LOCATED
   OVER MARION AND LAMAR COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST MS...WITH THIS ACTIVITY
   LOCATED NEAR...OR MORE LIKELY NORTH OF...THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY
   ATTENDANT TO THE LARGER COLD POOL.  LOW-LEVEL WAA ACROSS THIS REGION
   SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY FORCING MECHANISM FOR NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT...
   AS LARGER SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT SPREADS TO THE NORTHEAST AWAY
   FROM THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  THIS WOULD
   SUGGEST THE TORNADO THREAT MAY TEND TO BE LESS THAN WHAT WAS
   OBSERVED EARLIER THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST LA WITH THE ISSUANCE
   OF WW 66.

   ..PETERS/GOSS.. 03/31/2016


   ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...

   LAT...LON   31098987 31348997 31719000 31818974 31818885 31888835
               31868816 31788811 31488788 31198790 30958828 30878892
               30818934 30818968 31098987 

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Page last modified: March 31, 2016
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