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Mesoscale Discussion 300
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0300
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0223 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN SC/PARTS OF E CENTRAL/SERN GA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 151923Z - 152100Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...LIMITED/LOW-END SEVERE RISK ACROSS SRN SC AND ADJACENT ERN
   GA MAY CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...THOUGH WW IS NOT
   EXPECTED.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A NEARLY STATIONARY
   WEDGE/BACK-DOOR FRONT LYING FROM SRN SC WWD INTO CENTRAL GA...WITH A
   SMALL AREA OF HEATING/DESTABILIZATION ONGOING INVOF THE BOUNDARY
   EITHER SIDE OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER /MIXED-LAYER CAPE NOW IN THE 500
   TO 1000 J/KG RANGE/.

   WHILE MID-LEVEL SWLYS REMAIN MODEST ACROSS THE AREA...BACKED/ELY
   BOUNDARY-LAYER FLOW JUST TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT IS RESULTING
   IN A SMALL ZONE OF ENHANCED SHEAR -- WHICH APPEARS TO BE
   CONTRIBUTING TO SMALL/WEAKLY ROTATING STORMS NW OF CHS. 
   MEANWHILE...A SECOND CLUSTER/BAND OF STORMS IS MOVING EWD ACROSS THE
   NRN JASPER CO SC VICINITY ATTM.  WITH SEVERAL BOUNDARY COLLISIONS
   ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA ATTM...BRIEF/LOCAL INCREASES IN STORM
   INTENSITY WILL BE POSSIBLE -- PERHAPS SUFFICIENT TO RESULT IN
   SHORT-DURATION SEVERE EVENTS.  WITH THAT SAID HOWEVER...THE MARGINAL
   BACKGROUND ENVIRONMENT SUGGESTS THAT ANY SUCH RISK SHOULD REMAIN
   WELL BELOW ANY THRESHOLD NECESSARY TO CONSIDER WW ISSUANCE.

   ..GOSS/THOMPSON.. 04/15/2015


   ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...

   LAT...LON   32188051 32088141 32238187 32748192 33648143 33467889
               32757972 32188051 

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Page last modified: April 15, 2015
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