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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0300
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0922 PM CST MON FEB 25 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR EASTERN TX/NORTHERN LA/SOUTHERN AR INTO
NORTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL MS
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 75...
VALID 260322Z - 260445Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 75
CONTINUES.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 75 CONTINUES UNTIL 08Z...WITH A RISK FOR
LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS DEVELOPING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN
AR/NORTHERN LA INTO NORTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL MS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. IN ADDITION...MONITORING FOR AN ADDITIONAL WATCH AND/OR
EXTENSION ACROSS FAR EASTERN TX INTO CENTRAL LA.
PRIMARY COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX VICINITY...OVERTAKING INITIAL COLD FRONT AND DRYLINE WITH
STORMS QUICKLY INCREASING/EXPANDING ACROSS SOUTHWEST AR AS OF 03Z.
WITHIN THE AMBIENT WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LOW TO MID 60S F
DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO STEADILY DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS FAR EAST
CENTRAL TX/CENTRAL LA AS OF 03Z...WITH MID/UPPER 50S F DEWPOINTS
INTO SOUTHEAST AR/FAR WEST CENTRAL MS. OVERALL...STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS LARGE SCALE
ASCENT/LINEAR FRONTAL FORCING SPREADS EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX REGION...WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG
VERTICAL SHEAR/MARGINAL INSTABILITY. AS SUCH...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS SHOULD DEVELOP EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHERN AR AND NORTHERN LA PORTIONS OF SEVERE WATCH 75 OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...AND INTO NORTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL MS PERHAPS AS EARLY
AS 05Z-06Z. FARTHER SOUTHWEST...STORMS HAVE RECENTLY INCREASED IN
VICINITY OF PACIFIC FRONT ACROSS FAR EASTERN TX BETWEEN LONGVIEW AND
LUFKIN. IF AN UPWARD CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/INTENSITY TREND CONTINUES
TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS...AN ADDITIONAL WATCH COULD BE
NEEDED ACROSS FAR EASTERN TX/CENTRAL LA SOUTH OF WW 75.
..GUYER.. 02/26/2008
ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV...
33799347 34369211 34419096 34129031 33039047 31919196
31069345 31119447 31759482 32479450
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