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Mesoscale Discussion 300
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0300
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0748 PM CDT SUN APR 06 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SW AND S CENTRAL LA

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 64...

   VALID 070048Z - 070215Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 64 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES APPEARS TO BE INCREASING SOME
   COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW HOURS...WITH NEW SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORM
   DEVELOPMENT ACROSS S CENTRAL LA.

   DISCUSSION...THE 00Z LCH SOUNDING REVEALED MLCAPE NEAR 1800 J/KG
   WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR...WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS OF 70-72 F BELOW 7
   C/KM MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES.  THE RECENT DEVELOPMENT OF APPARENTLY
   SURFACE-BASED STORMS NEAR LAFAYETTE MAY BE SIGNALING A RELATIVE
   INCREASE IN THE TORNADO RISK...COINCIDENT WITH THE WARM SECTOR
   CONTINUING TO EXPAND INLAND.  GIVEN THE RICH MOISTURE AND MODERATE
   BUOYANCY...STORMS INTERACTING WITH THE WARM FRONT /AND ZONE OF
   ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/ WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
   TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING GUSTS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.

   ..THOMPSON/GUYER.. 04/07/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...

   LAT...LON   30499157 29959181 29689265 29669353 29869371 30229350
               30649270 30959209 30889174 30499157 

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Page last modified: April 07, 2014
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