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Mesoscale Discussion 301
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0301
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0241 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NERN AND EXTREME E-CENTRAL CO...NWRN
   KS...EXTREME SWRN NEB AND SRN NEB PANHANDLE...SMALL PART OF EXTREME
   SERN WY.

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 151941Z - 152215Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP THROUGH
   REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON ACROSS WRN/SRN PARTS OF DISCUSSION
   AREA...MOVING NWD TO NNEWD.  ISOLATED SVR GUSTS AND HAIL ARE
   POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWED WELL-DEFINED LOW BETWEEN
   MNH-FTG...INVOF NWRN ELBERT/CENTRAL ARAPAHOE COUNTIES.  SYNOPTIC
   QUASISTATIONARY FRONT WAS DRAWN FROM THERE NNEWD NEAR GXY AND
   BFF...BECOMING COLD FRONT FARTHER N ACROSS NRN NEB PANHANDLE AND WRN
   DAKOTAS.  SFC TROUGH AND CONFLUENCE LINE WAS EVIDENT IN CONVENTIONAL
   OBS AND RADAR REFLECTIVITY IMAGERY FROM CENTRAL DOUGLAS COUNTY NEWD
   THROUGH SFC LOW TO ERN MORGAN AND WRN LOGAN COUNTIES...AND SHOULD
   REMAIN QUASISTATIONARY WITH ONLY LOCALIZED OSCILLATIONS FOR ANOTHER
   COUPLE HOURS.  THIS BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR ASCENT
   AT CONVECTIVE SCALES.  CLOSELY CORRESPONDING STRAND OF TCU/SMALL CB
   ARE EVIDENT NEAR TROUGH -- HIGH-BASED PER COMBINATION OF VIS IMAGERY
   AND MODIFIED FCST SOUNDINGS.

   WARM FRONT AND DRYLINE SPLIT FROM EACH OTHER OVER NERN PANHANDLE OF
   TX.  COMBINED BOUNDARY EXTENDS BETWEEN THERE AND SFC LOW...VERY NEAR
   A PYX...LBL...LIC LINE.  SW OF THAT BOUNDARY...STRONG DRYING/MIXING
   IS EVIDENT THAT SHOULD ACT AS SRN DELIMITER FOR ANY SUBSTANTIAL
   CONVECTIVE INITIATION.  AIR MASS BECOMES MORE MOIST...BUT ALSO
   COOLER WITH WWD EXTENT FROM FRONT.  SFC MOIST AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM
   NRN OK NWWD ACROSS W-CENTRAL/NWRN KS TO CHEYENNE COUNTY KS...LOGAN
   CO...TO INTERSECTION WITH FRONT NEAR SERN CORNER OF WY.  SFC DEW
   POINTS NEARBY RANGE FROM UPPER 30S E CYS TO MID 40S NEAR GLD.

   MOST FAVORABLE BUOYANCY...AND EVEN THAT STILL IS MRGL...IS EVIDENT
   IN NARROW CORRIDOR NEAR WARM FRONT...THEN EXTENDING NWD BETWEEN
   STATIONARY FRONT AND SFC TROUGH.  300-800 J/KG MLCAPE SHOULD BE
   COMMON IN THAT CORRIDOR THROUGH ABOUT 23Z...AWAY FROM CONVECTIVE
   OUTFLOW...AS IT SHIFTS NNEWD ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA 15-25 KT IN STEP
   WITH WARM FRONT.  EFFECTIVE-SHEAR MAGNITUDES 40-45 KT INDICATE SOME
   POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TO ORGANIZE.  WELL-MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYERS
   WITHIN ABOUT 60 NM N OF WARM FRONT WILL SUPPORT STG TO BRIEFLY SVR
   GUST POTENTIAL.  ANY COLD-POOL AGGREGATION WOULD EXTEND MRGL THREAT
   NEWD ACROSS MORE OF SWRN NEB...THEN EVENTUALLY NWRN KS FROM ANY
   CONVECTION DEVELOPING NEAR WARM FRONT.

   ..EDWARDS/THOMPSON.. 04/15/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

   LAT...LON   40810416 41140428 41440396 41570333 41160240 40690178
               39870118 39370107 38810114 38400183 38360238 38970267
               40240344 40540380 40810416 

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