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Mesoscale Discussion 301
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0301
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0837 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AL...WRN FL PANHANDLE

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 311337Z - 311430Z

   CORRECTED FOR AREAS AFFECTED

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A TORNADO THREAT ALONG WITH A POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE
   WILL CONTINUE AS CELLS MOVE EWD ACROSS SRN AL AND INTO THE FAR WRN
   FL PANHANDLE THIS MORNING. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
   ACROSS THE REGION SHORTLY.

   DISCUSSION...A SMALL CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH A SEVERE
   POTENTIAL...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD INTO SRN AL OVER THE NEXT
   HOUR. AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY IS ANALYZED ACROSS SRN AL WHERE MLCAPE
   VALUES ARE ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND 500 J/KG. INSTABILITY MAY INCREASE
   THIS MORNING AS SFC HEATING TAKES PLACE. THIS COMBINED WITH 55 KT OF
   0-6 KM SHEAR AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR EVIDENT ON THE MOBILE
   88D-VWP SHOULD RESULT IN A CONTINUED TORNADO THREAT THIS MORNING.
   SUPERCELLS AND BOWING LINE SEGMENTS WILL ALSO HAVE A WIND DAMAGE
   THREAT AS WELL.

   ..BROYLES/THOMPSON.. 03/31/2016


   ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...LIX...

   LAT...LON   30478616 30348738 30368844 31618855 32048824 32118692
               31878608 30478616 

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Page last modified: March 31, 2016
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