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Mesoscale Discussion 301
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0301
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0802 PM CDT SUN APR 06 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND CENTRAL ALABAMA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 070102Z - 070300Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN
   MISSISSIPPI AND CENTRAL ALABAMA. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE
   PRIMARY THREAT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. A TORNADO THREAT MAY
   DEVELOP LATE IN THE EVENING AS THE SURFACE WARM FRONT APPROACHES.

   DISCUSSION...SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN
   COVERAGE SOUTH OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS SOUTHERN
   LOUISIANA EASTWARD INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE PREDOMINANT STORM
   MOTION WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE THESE STORMS NORTHEASTWARD /NORTH OF
   THE WARM FRONT/...WITH A TRANSITION FROM SURFACE BASED TO ELEVATED
   WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT. GIVEN THE STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR /AT OR
   ABOVE 50 KTS/ AND INCREASING MUCAPE...THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
   ELEVATED SUPERCELLS WILL EXIST THROUGH THE EVENING. GIVEN THE
   ELEVATED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE
   PREDOMINANT THREAT.

   LATER THIS EVENING...INTO THE OVERNIGHT...THE SURFACE WARM FRONT IS
   EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA. AS THIS OCCURS...THE POTENTIAL FOR
   SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION WILL INCREASE. IF SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION
   IS REALIZED THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES WOULD CONSEQUENTLY
   INCREASE...REQUIRING THE ISSUANCE OF A TORNADO WATCH.

   ..MARSH/GUYER.. 04/07/2014


   ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...MEG...JAN...

   LAT...LON   33808911 34018773 33728698 33138581 32598581 32138593
               32068639 32078753 32318833 32628926 33018989 33698962
               33808911 

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Page last modified: April 07, 2014
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