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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0302
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0115 PM CDT SAT MAR 23 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/NRN FL PENINSULA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 231815Z - 232015Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A FEW STRONG TO ISOLATED SVR STORMS COULD DEVELOP AFTER
1900Z. GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED ISOLATED COVERAGE OF ANY SVR
THREAT...THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS UNLIKELY.
DISCUSSION...DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER CIRCULATIONS WITHIN THE WARM
SECTOR S OF A NRN-FL WARM FRONT HAVE BEEN SUPPORTING HORIZONTAL
CONVECTIVE ROLLS/CLOUD STREETS ORIENTED PARALLEL TO LOW-LEVEL SWLY
FLOW EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AREA RADAR DATA SUGGEST THAT RELATIVELY
DEEPER CONVECTIVE PLUMES HAVE OCCASIONALLY EVOLVED ALONG THE
ASCENDING BRANCHES OF THESE ROLLS. MODIFIED 12Z TBW RAOB DATA TO
ACCOUNT FOR SFC TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
60S AND LOWER 70S ARE SUPPORTING 1500-2500 J/KG OF MLCAPE. A FEW
MORE VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS MAY EVOLVE THIS AFTERNOON OWING TO CONTINUED
DIABATIC SFC HEATING...AND AS LOW-LEVEL ASCENT IS LOCALLY AUGMENTED
INVOF A MODESTLY STRENGTHENING SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION ALONG THE
NATURE COAST. ALSO...A SUPERCELL STORM OVER THE NE GULF WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. WHILE ITS EVENTUAL IMPACTS TO THE FL BIG
BEND ARE UNCERTAIN...IT MAY POSE A SVR THREAT TO PARTS OF LEVY
COUNTY IN A FEW HOURS.
STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CONDITIONALLY CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING SVR HAIL AND DMGG WIND GUSTS...AS STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ACCOMPANYING AN EML COMBINE WITH 40-55 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR TO SUPPORT VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS. HOWEVER...THE GREATER SVR THREAT
WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS N OF THE MCD AREA -- NEAR AND N OF THE
WARM FRONT -- WHERE STRONGER/DEEPER ASCENT AND RELATIVELY COOLER
MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL PROMOTE GREATER COVERAGE OF PERSISTENT
CONVECTION. AS SUCH...ANY SVR THREAT WILL LIKELY BE ISOLATED ACROSS
CNTRL/NRN PARTS OF THE FL PENINSULA.
..COHEN/HART.. 03/23/2013
ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...
LAT...LON 29718259 29678180 29398117 28498074 27918061 27508098
27378147 27528210 27908258 28898267 29378292 29718259
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