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Mesoscale Discussion 302
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0302
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1026 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AR...FAR NW MS...WRN TN...FAR SW KY...FAR SE MO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 311526Z - 311800Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND MAY INCREASE
   ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WIND DAMAGE AND
   HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS LATE THIS MORNING BUT AN ISOLATED
   TORNADO THREAT MAY DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WW ISSUANCE MAY BE
   NEEDED ACROSS THE REGION.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SSWWD
   FROM CNTRL MO INTO THE ARKLATEX WITH A CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL
   MOISTURE ACROSS NERN LA NNEWD INTO ERN AR. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
   DEVELOPED ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF THE MOIST CORRIDOR WHERE SFC
   DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 F. AS SFC HEATING TAKES
   PLACE IN THE MID MS VALLEY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...MODERATE
   INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF ERN AR AND WRN TN. IN
   ADDITION...THE WSR-88D VWP AT MEMPHIS SHOWS 0-6 KM SHEAR NEAR 50 KT
   WITH SUBSTANTIAL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS
   SUGGESTING THAT STORM ORGANIZATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE LATE
   THIS MORNING. SHORT-TERM MODEL FORECASTS GRADUALLY MOVE THE CURRENT
   CONVECTION NEWD INTO FAR SE MO AND WRN TN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
   WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE SWD ACROSS CNTRL ERN AR. DUE TO
   THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...STORM MODE
   WILL FAVOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS AND A FEW ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS.
   THE MAIN THREATS LATE THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE WIND DAMAGE
   AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. A TORNADO THREAT MAY DEVELOP EARLY THIS
   AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES.

   ..BROYLES/THOMPSON.. 03/31/2016


   ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...

   LAT...LON   36598780 35698812 34519001 33549131 33519232 34239287
               35379150 36399004 36838915 36598780 

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Page last modified: March 31, 2016
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