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Mesoscale Discussion 302
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0302
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1010 PM CDT SUN APR 06 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN
   MISSISSIPPI....SOUTHERN ALABAMA...AND FAR WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 65...

   VALID 070310Z - 070515Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 65 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES SHOULD INCREASE LATER THIS
   EVENING AS THE SURFACE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO ADVANCE NORTHWARD.
   TORNADOES...A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE
   POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

   DISCUSSION...THE SURFACE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH
   ACROSS PORTIONS OF WW 65. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS FRONT...SURFACE BASED
   INSTABILITY...STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR...AND MODEST EFFECTIVE
   STORM-RELATIVE HELICITY /MAXIMIZED NEAR THE SURFACE WARM FRONT/ WILL
   SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH AN ATTENDANT TORNADO THREAT WITH ANY SURFACE
   BASED THUNDERSTORM THAT CAN DEVELOP. 

   TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT...THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN A
   REGION OF STRONG WARM-AIR ADVECTION. THIS HAS RESULTED IN AN
   EXPANSIVE RAIN SHIELD THAT HAS SLOWED THE NORTHWARD ADVANCEMENT OF
   THE SURFACE WARM FRONT. THIS FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO ADVANCE
   NORTHWARD AS THE MAIN SURFACE LOW AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH BEGIN TO
   LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS THIS OCCURS...THE
   TORNADO THREAT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF WW
   65...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY ESTABLISHED STORM THAT CAN BEGIN TO
   INTERACT WITH NORTHWARD ADVANCING FRONT.

   ..MARSH.. 04/07/2014


   ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

   LAT...LON   31139171 31909054 32728877 32548795 31998604 30358613
               30268762 29798834 29368869 29008913 29129025 29199087
               29419142 30439171 31139171 

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Page last modified: April 07, 2014
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