MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0302
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0115 PM CDT SAT MAR 23 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/NRN FL PENINSULA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 231815Z - 232015Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...A FEW STRONG TO ISOLATED SVR STORMS COULD DEVELOP AFTER
   1900Z. GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED ISOLATED COVERAGE OF ANY SVR
   THREAT...THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS UNLIKELY.
   
   DISCUSSION...DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER CIRCULATIONS WITHIN THE WARM
   SECTOR S OF A NRN-FL WARM FRONT HAVE BEEN SUPPORTING HORIZONTAL
   CONVECTIVE ROLLS/CLOUD STREETS ORIENTED PARALLEL TO LOW-LEVEL SWLY
   FLOW EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AREA RADAR DATA SUGGEST THAT RELATIVELY
   DEEPER CONVECTIVE PLUMES HAVE OCCASIONALLY EVOLVED ALONG THE
   ASCENDING BRANCHES OF THESE ROLLS. MODIFIED 12Z TBW RAOB DATA TO
   ACCOUNT FOR SFC TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
   60S AND LOWER 70S ARE SUPPORTING 1500-2500 J/KG OF MLCAPE. A FEW
   MORE VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS MAY EVOLVE THIS AFTERNOON OWING TO CONTINUED
   DIABATIC SFC HEATING...AND AS LOW-LEVEL ASCENT IS LOCALLY AUGMENTED
   INVOF A MODESTLY STRENGTHENING SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION ALONG THE
   NATURE COAST. ALSO...A SUPERCELL STORM OVER THE NE GULF WILL
   CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. WHILE ITS EVENTUAL IMPACTS TO THE FL BIG
   BEND ARE UNCERTAIN...IT MAY POSE A SVR THREAT TO PARTS OF LEVY
   COUNTY IN A FEW HOURS.
   
   STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CONDITIONALLY CAPABLE OF
   PRODUCING SVR HAIL AND DMGG WIND GUSTS...AS STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES ACCOMPANYING AN EML COMBINE WITH 40-55 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK
   SHEAR TO SUPPORT VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS. HOWEVER...THE GREATER SVR THREAT
   WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS N OF THE MCD AREA -- NEAR AND N OF THE
   WARM FRONT -- WHERE STRONGER/DEEPER ASCENT AND RELATIVELY COOLER
   MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL PROMOTE GREATER COVERAGE OF PERSISTENT
   CONVECTION. AS SUCH...ANY SVR THREAT WILL LIKELY BE ISOLATED ACROSS
   CNTRL/NRN PARTS OF THE FL PENINSULA.
   
   ..COHEN/HART.. 03/23/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...
   
   LAT...LON   29718259 29678180 29398117 28498074 27918061 27508098
               27378147 27528210 27908258 28898267 29378292 29718259