MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0302
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0553 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AR...WRN MS...NRN LA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 272253Z - 280030Z
   
   THE SEVERE THREAT WILL INCREASE ACROSS SRN AR...NRN LA AND WRN MS
   OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY
   IN COVERAGE WEST OF THE MCD AREA AND BEGIN TO AFFECT NRN LA AND SRN
   AR EARLY THIS EVENING. TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL
   BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE
   NEEDED ACROSS THE MCD AREA EARLY THIS EVENING.
   
   LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SFC LOW NEAR THE RED RIVER IN FAR NE
   TX/FAR SE OK WITH A DIFFUSE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
   EXTENDING EWD ACROSS SRN AR. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...DEWPOINTS ARE
   IN THE MID 60S F WITH AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY EXTENDING SWD
   ACROSS MUCH OF LA. THIS ENVIRONMENT ALONG WITH STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR
   PROFILES EVIDENT ON REGIONAL WSR-88 VWPS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
   STRONG UPDRAFTS WITH LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL. STORMS SHOULD INITIATE
   AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS A VORTICITY MAX ANALYZED BY THE RUC IN
   NE TX MOVES INTO SRN AR. IN ADDITION...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL INCREASE
   AS A LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AND DRIFTS EWD INTO THE MCD AREA
   EARLY THIS EVENING MAKING CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND
   TORNADOES. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG TORNADO WITH ANY
   SUPERCELL THAN TRACKS EWD ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND IS NEAR THE
   DEEPENING SFC LOW. THE WIND DAMAGE SHOULD ALSO ACCOMPANY THE
   STRONGER CELLS ESPECIALLY WITH ORGANIZED FAST-MOVING LINE SEGMENTS.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 03/27/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...
   
   LAT...LON   33939146 33729086 33499042 32978991 32528988 32229048
               32149110 32269142 32309172 32149234 31999271 32229317
               32739380 33169464 33569487 34199466 34569427 34469350
               34119224 33939146