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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0302
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0553 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AR...WRN MS...NRN LA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 272253Z - 280030Z
THE SEVERE THREAT WILL INCREASE ACROSS SRN AR...NRN LA AND WRN MS
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY
IN COVERAGE WEST OF THE MCD AREA AND BEGIN TO AFFECT NRN LA AND SRN
AR EARLY THIS EVENING. TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED ACROSS THE MCD AREA EARLY THIS EVENING.
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SFC LOW NEAR THE RED RIVER IN FAR NE
TX/FAR SE OK WITH A DIFFUSE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING EWD ACROSS SRN AR. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...DEWPOINTS ARE
IN THE MID 60S F WITH AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY EXTENDING SWD
ACROSS MUCH OF LA. THIS ENVIRONMENT ALONG WITH STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES EVIDENT ON REGIONAL WSR-88 VWPS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
STRONG UPDRAFTS WITH LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL. STORMS SHOULD INITIATE
AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS A VORTICITY MAX ANALYZED BY THE RUC IN
NE TX MOVES INTO SRN AR. IN ADDITION...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL INCREASE
AS A LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AND DRIFTS EWD INTO THE MCD AREA
EARLY THIS EVENING MAKING CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND
TORNADOES. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG TORNADO WITH ANY
SUPERCELL THAN TRACKS EWD ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND IS NEAR THE
DEEPENING SFC LOW. THE WIND DAMAGE SHOULD ALSO ACCOMPANY THE
STRONGER CELLS ESPECIALLY WITH ORGANIZED FAST-MOVING LINE SEGMENTS.
..BROYLES.. 03/27/2009
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...
LAT...LON 33939146 33729086 33499042 32978991 32528988 32229048
32149110 32269142 32309172 32149234 31999271 32229317
32739380 33169464 33569487 34199466 34569427 34469350
34119224 33939146
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