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Mesoscale Discussion 302
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0302
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0303 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS TX/OK PANHANDLES.

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 152003Z - 152230Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TSTMS MAY POST RISK OF
   SPORADIC STG-SVR GUSTS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL OVER CENTRAL/ERN
   PANHANDLES DURING REMAINDER AFTERNOON.

   DISCUSSION...SFC MESOANALYSIS REVEALED WARM FRONT FROM CYCLONE OVER
   DEN AREA...SEWD ACROSS ERN CO TO NEAR PYX...HHF...SWRN CORNER OF
   OK...AND DFW METROPLEX.  WARM FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE NWD
   15-20 KT.  DRYLINE INTERSECTS FRONT BETWEEN PYX-HHF AND EXTENDS
   GENERALLY SWD ACROSS ERN TX PANHANDLE ACROSS DONLEY TO ERN CROSBY
   COUNTY...PER W TX MESONET OBS.  DRYLINE SHOULD MAINTAIN NEAR-PRESENT
   POSITION FOR A COUPLE HOURS BEFORE RETREATING.

   MEANWHILE...SFC CONFLUENCE LINE...WHICH ALSO IS ACTING AS A
   PSEUDO-DRYLINE WITH EVEN DRIER/MORE STRONGLY MIXED AIR TO ITS
   W...WAS EVIDENT IN MESONET/CONVENTIONAL OBS...RADAR AND VIS
   SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM NEAR BGD-AMA LINE SWWD OVER LEA COUNTY NM. 
   THIS FEATURE SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY EWD...WHILE CONTINUING TO FOSTER
   DEVELOPMENT OF HIGH-BASED BUT DEEP CONVECTIVE TOWERS...SOME OF WHICH
   ALREADY HAVE PRODUCED LTG.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE NEWD INTO
   ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY UPPER-30S TO MID-40S F SFC DEW
   POINTS...WITH 50S COMMON E OF DRYLINE.  ACCORDINGLY MODIFIED RAOBS
   AND FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST NARROW CORRIDOR OF FAVORABLE BUOYANCY
   BETWEEN CONFLUENCE LINE AND DRYLINE...E OF WHICH MLCINH BECOMES
   UNFAVORABLE AT OVER 250 J/KG IN WRN OK.  IN THAT CORRIDOR...MLCAPE
   500-1200 J/KG AND DCAPE LOCALLY EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG ARE EVIDENT. 
   DEEP SHEAR IS WEAK AND SHOULD REMAIN SO...ALTHOUGH INCREASE IN LLJ
   TOWARD SUNSET WILL BOOST STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW FOR ANY REMAINING
   CONVECTION NOT ALREADY SQUELCHED BY MOVING INTO EXCESSIVE CINH.

   ..EDWARDS/THOMPSON.. 04/15/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...

   LAT...LON   36960097 36830028 35890006 34700058 33730261 35450172
               36280111 36750105 36960097 

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Page last modified: April 15, 2015
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