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Mesoscale Discussion 303
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0303
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1046 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF FAR ERN IA...NRN IL...AND SRN WI

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 311546Z - 311715Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A LOW THREAT FOR OCCASIONALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL EXIST
   THROUGH ABOUT 18Z. DUE TO THE MARGINAL NATURE OF THE EXPECTED
   THREAT...WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS FAR ERN IA INTO NWRN IL AND
   SWRN WI AS OF 1540Z IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
   NEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THAT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGER SCALE
   POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE CNTRL/SWRN CONUS.
   AT THE SFC...A LOW IS ELONGATED FROM NE-SW ACROSS LOWER MI INTO NRN
   IL...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD FROM THE LOW ACROSS THE IA/IL
   BORDER MOVING EWD. COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT COMBINED WITH MODEST SFC
   HEATING AND SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ARE CONTRIBUTING TO WEAK
   INSTABILITY...WITH MUCAPE RANGING FROM 250-750 J/KG PER RAP
   MESOANALYSIS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS. WITH SOME ADDITIONAL HEATING
   EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...INSTABILITY MAY INCREASE
   SLIGHTLY THROUGH 18Z BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE MCD
   AREA. STRONG SWLY WINDS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40-50 KT SHOULD ALLOW SOME OF THE
   CONVECTION TO BECOME ORGANIZED AND POSE MAINLY AN ISOLATED LARGE
   HAIL RISK THROUGH 18Z. THE LACK OF A WARMER/MORE MOIST LOW-LEVEL
   AIRMASS SHOULD TEMPER THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND RESULTING SEVERE
   RISK.

   ..GLEASON/THOMPSON.. 03/31/2016


   ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...

   LAT...LON   40729082 41319074 41889045 42379058 42589046 42838998
               42958895 43048777 42718764 42298767 41688755 41228836
               40739009 40729082 

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Page last modified: March 31, 2016
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