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Mesoscale Discussion 304
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0304
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1129 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AL...WRN FL PANHANDLE

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 67...

   VALID 311629Z - 311830Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 67 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...A TORNADO THREAT ALONG WITH A POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE
   AND HAIL WILL CONTINUE LATE THIS MORNING ACROSS WW 67. THE THREATS
   ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD EWD ACROSS SCNTRL AND SERN AL AND AFFECT THE
   WRN FL PANHANDLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE MAY
   BE NEEDED TO THE EAST OF WW 67.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR DATA SHOW A PERSISTENT CLUSTER OF STORMS
   IN SWRN AL WITH A COUPLE OF ROTATING CELLS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE.
   THE STORMS ARE LOCATED ALONG A CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL
   CONVERGENCE WHERE SFC WINDS ARE LOCALLY MAXIMIZED. SOUTH OF THE
   CORRIDOR OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...SFC DEWPOINTS HAVE
   INCREASED INTO THE MID 60S F AND SFC TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID
   TO UPPER 70S F. AS A RESULT...WEAK INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED FROM
   SCNTRL AL SWD ACROSS PARTS OF THE WRN FL PANHANDLE. IN
   ADDITION...THE FORT RUCKER AL WSR-88D VWP SHOWS 0-6 KM SHEAR NEAR 60
   KT WITH SUBSTANTIAL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 3 KM AGL. THIS
   IS CONTRIBUTING TO STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WITH 0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE
   HELICITY ESTIMATED AROUND 400 M2/S2. IN RESPONSE...THE TORNADO
   THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE CELLS
   MOVE ACROSS THE ERN PART OF WW 67. CONTINUED SFC HEATING AND
   INCREASING INSTABILITY ALONG WITH THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD
   ENABLE THE SEVERE THREAT TO BE MAINTAINED TO THE EAST OF WW 67. A
   POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR TORNADOES AND WIND DAMAGE ACROSS FAR SE AL
   AND THE WRN FL PANHANDLE...ESPECIALLY NEARER TO THE COAST WHERE
   ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE MAY BE NEEDED.

   ..BROYLES.. 03/31/2016


   ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...

   LAT...LON   31958704 31478765 30908803 30468791 30278733 30428646
               30108562 29848501 30368471 31348492 31818612 31958704 

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Page last modified: March 31, 2016
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