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Mesoscale Discussion 304
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0304
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0346 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LA/SRN MS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 152046Z - 152215Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN EVOLVING BAND OF STORMS OVER SERN LA MAY POSE
   ISOLATED/LOW-END SEVERE RISK OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS -- THOUGH
   LIKELY NOT REQUIRING WW ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS SERN
   LA ATTM...ALONG A WNW-ESE CONFLUENCE BAND INDICATED ON LATEST
   SURFACE ANALYSIS.  THE CONVECTION IS BEING AIDED BY AFTERNOON
   HEATING/DESTABILIZATION WHICH HAS PUSHED MIXED-LAYER CAPE VALUES
   INTO THE 1500 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE PER RECENT OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INVOF
   THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY.

   WITH LOW-LEVEL FLOW NEAR AND N OF THE BOUNDARY FROM THE NNE...RAPID
   VEERING/INCREASING OF THE FLOW WITH HEIGHT IS YIELDING SHEAR
   SUFFICIENT FOR WEAK UPDRAFT ROTATION -- AS IS CURRENTLY BEING
   OBSERVED WITHIN ONE STRONGER/ORGANIZED CELL JUST W OF LAKE
   PONTCHARTRAIN ATTM.  THOUGH EXPECT RISK TO REMAIN LIMITED WITH
   RESPECT TO BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY...LOCAL RISK FOR MARGINAL
   HAIL AND/OR WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
   HOURS.

   ..GOSS/THOMPSON.. 04/15/2015


   ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...

   LAT...LON   29879052 30259148 30699132 31339035 31178927 30698839
               30148844 29438937 29879052 

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Page last modified: April 15, 2015
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