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Mesoscale Discussion 304
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0304
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1142 PM CDT SUN APR 06 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...E CENTRAL MS...W CENTRAL AND CENTRAL AL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 070442Z - 070645Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR E CENTRAL MS INTO CENTRAL AL FOR
   THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS OVERNIGHT.  THE PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY
   REGARDS THE NWD EXTENSION OF THE SURFACE WARM SECTOR AND A
   RAIN-COOLED BOUNDARY.

   DISCUSSION...THE SURFACE LOW NEAR NATCHEZ MS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
   TO SLOWLY DEEPEN WILL MOVING NNEWD.  THE WARM SECTOR HAS ALSO SPREAD
   A FEW COUNTIES INLAND ACROSS SRN MS/AL DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. 
   FARTHER N...WIDESPREAD CONVECTION HAS REINFORCED THE COOL AIR MASS
   AND GENERATED SOME SLOW SWD-SEWD MOTION OF AN EFFECTIVE OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY...EXTENDING FROM JUST S OF A JAN-MEI LINE TO NEAR BHM AS OF
   0430Z.  THE WIDESPREAD/ONGOING NATURE OF THE ELEVATED CONVECTION
   SUGGESTS THAT A NWD RETREAT OF THE RAIN-COOLED AIR MASS IS IN
   QUESTION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.  THUS...THE MAJORITY OF THE
   SEVERE WEATHER RISK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN S-SW OF THE DISCUSSION
   AREA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE WARM SECTOR /WITHIN TORNADO
   WATCH 65/.  

   HOWEVER...PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS NW AL/NE MS COULD EVENTUALLY HELP
   DRAW THE RAIN-COOLED AIR MASS NWD...AS THE SURFACE WARM SECTOR
   CONTINUES TO ADVANCE NWD TOWARD E CENTRAL MS AND CENTRAL AL. 
   IF/WHEN IT BECOMES CLEAR THAT LOW-LEVEL DESTABILIZATION WILL REACH N
   OF THE EXISTING TORNADO WATCH...A NEW WATCH MAY BECOME NECESSARY FOR
   PARTS OF E CENTRAL MS TO CENTRAL AL DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

   ..THOMPSON/GUYER.. 04/07/2014


   ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...

   LAT...LON   33138600 32548615 32218657 32198752 32248806 32378841
               32508897 32548998 32788985 33258835 33598751 33718673
               33658654 33418618 33138600 

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Page last modified: April 07, 2014
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