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Mesoscale Discussion 305
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0305
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0437 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...A SMALL PORTION OF N-CNTRL/NERN CO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 152137Z - 152300Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A LOW RISK FOR A SVR TSTM OR TWO MAY EXIST DURING THE NEXT
   FEW HOURS...THOUGH THE MARGINALITY AND LOW COVERAGE OF SUCH
   POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE WW ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS THE RETURN OF MODEST LOW-LEVEL
   MOISTURE ON THE N SIDE OF A SFC CYCLONE CENTERED ENE OF DENVER.
   DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S ARE CONTRIBUTING TO A NARROW CORRIDOR OF MLCAPE
   AROUND 250-500 J/KG EXTENDING WWD TO THE CO FRONT RANGE N OF THE SFC
   LOW. THE COMBINATION OF DIURNALLY ENHANCED OROGRAPHIC CIRCULATIONS
   AND DCVA PRECEDING A CNTRL GREAT BASIN DEEP CYCLONE ARE ENCOURAGING
   CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE FRONT RANGE. WITH 40-50 KT OF
   EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR...ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES INCLUDING
   POSSIBLE MARGINAL SUPERCELLS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE SPREADING EWD.
   STEEP TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES WILL AID IN SUPPORTING STRONG
   UPDRAFTS...AND ISOLATED MARGINALLY SVR HAIL/WIND CANNOT BE RULED
   OUT. HOWEVER...THE LACK OF RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIMIT
   BUOYANCY AND THE CORRESPONDING SVR-TSTM RISK.

   ..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 04/15/2015


   ATTN...WFO...BOU...

   LAT...LON   40800385 40480360 40200376 40250519 40830534 40970426
               40800385 

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Page last modified: April 15, 2015
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