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Mesoscale Discussion 305
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0305
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1236 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF FAR ERN MO...CNTRL/ERN/SRN IL...FAR SRN
   LOWER MI...AND WRN/CNTRL IND

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 311736Z - 311900Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT
   SEVERAL HOURS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN
   CONCERNS. WW ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG/JUST AHEAD
   OF A SFC COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL IL
   INTO FAR ERN MO AS OF 1730Z. THE LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM OF
   THIS FRONT IS WEAKLY UNSTABLE...WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS TEMPERING
   DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION SO FAR. BUT WITH CONTINUED NWD TRANSPORT OF
   LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS SRN IL/WRN KY /CHARACTERIZED BY SFC
   DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S/...SOME INCREASE IN INSTABILITY SHOULD
   OCCUR THROUGH 19Z. A VEERING/STRENGTHENING WIND PROFILE NOTED ON THE
   12Z KILX SOUNDING AS WELL AS RECENT VWPS FROM AREA RADARS SUGGESTS
   BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL EASILY SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES
   INITIALLY...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREATS.
   EVENTUAL UPSCALE GROWTH INTO SHORT LINE SEGMENTS MAY OCCUR LATER
   THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE TORNADO THREAT ACROSS THE MCD AREA
   SHOULD REMAIN LOW...BUT NOT ZERO...AS 0-1 KM WINDS TEND TO VEER SWLY
   WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT...LIMITING LOW-LEVEL SRH.

   ..GLEASON/THOMPSON.. 03/31/2016


   ATTN...WFO...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...

   LAT...LON   37788953 38539061 39149017 40938879 41548753 41718690
               41918654 41828583 40428591 39228628 38008688 38018735
               37988782 37908807 37538835 37278869 37288926 37788953 

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Page last modified: March 31, 2016
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