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Mesoscale Discussion 306
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0306
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0549 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN NEB...WRN KS...FAR ERN CO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 152249Z - 160115Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR ISOLATED SVR TSTMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
   EVENING HOURS...THOUGH WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...DEEP FORCING FOR ASCENT IS OVERSPREADING THE CNTRL HIGH
   PLAINS...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE ADVANCING THROUGH
   THE SERN SEMICIRCLE OF A CYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN.
   RELATED MID-LEVEL COOLING IS ENCOURAGING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
   WITHIN A CORRIDOR FROM THE ERN NEB PANHANDLE INTO E-CNTRL CO -- I.E.
   ON THE NERN FRINGES OF A DEEPER PBL. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO
   SPREAD NEWD INTO SLIGHTLY RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /SFC DEWPOINTS
   GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 40S/ THAT EXTENDS NNWWD FROM WRN KS INTO THE
   ERN NEB PANHANDLE AHEAD OF A SFC FRONT. THIS MOISTURE...COMBINED
   WITH STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITHIN A 50-100-MILE-WIDE
   CORRIDOR E OF ONGOING CONVECTION...WILL ALLOW FOR ROBUST UPDRAFTS
   GIVEN 40-55 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. ISOLATED SVR HAIL WILL BE
   THE PRIMARY CONCERN...THOUGH A SVR WIND GUST OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED
   OUT WITHIN THE DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS PARTS OF FAR ERN CO INTO
   SWRN NEB AND WRN KS. THE LACK OF RICHER MOISTURE WILL LIKELY
   PRECLUDE A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SVR-TSTM RISK FROM OCCURRING.
   ALSO...STATIC STABILITY E OF THE MCD AREA -- AS EVIDENCED BY BILLOW
   CLOUD STRUCTURES -- WILL LIMIT THE SPATIAL EXTENT OF ANY SVR-TSTM
   RISK.

   ..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 04/15/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...BOU...CYS...

   LAT...LON   39530045 38670066 38380152 39200215 41130263 42230308
               42490289 42290211 40840109 39530045 

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Page last modified: April 16, 2015
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