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Mesoscale Discussion 306
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0306
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0130 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/NERN LA...CNTRL AND NRN MS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 311830Z - 312030Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FROM CNTRL AND NERN LA
   NEWD INTO CNTRL AND NRN MS. TORNADOES...WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WILL BE
   POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL AND NRN MS. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND
   WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE SWWD ACROSS WRN MS INTO NERN AND CNTRL
   LA. WW ISSUANCE WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE REGION THIS
   AFTERNOON.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DISTINCT CORRIDOR OF
   LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE LOCATED FROM ERN LA NNEWD ALONG THE MS RIVER INTO
   WRN TN. SFC DEWPOINTS ALONG THIS CORRIDOR RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO
   THE LOWER 70S F AND MLCAPE IS ESTIMATED FROM NEAR 1500 J/KG IN NERN
   LA TO AROUND 750 J/KG IN NERN MS. OVER THE LAST HOUR...RADAR TRENDS
   SHOW CONVECTION TRYING TO INITIATE IN WRN MS BUT THIS PROCESS MAY
   TAKE AN HOUR OR SO.  THE HRRR IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS
   THINKING...SUGGESTING THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN NW MS AND
   NERN LA IN THE 19Z TO 20Z TIMEFRAME WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
   CONVECTIVE COVERAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS IN
   CNTRL AND NERN MS SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 60 KT WITH 0-3 KM STORM
   RELATIVE HELICITIES NEAR 350 M2/S2. THIS COMBINED WITH SFC SSELY
   FLOW ACROSS NERN MS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADOES
   AND WIND DAMAGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. FURTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST
   ACROSS NERN LA AND WRN MS...SFC WINDS ARE GENERALLY FROM THE
   SOUTHWEST SUGGESTING THAT THE TORNADO THREAT WILL BE LESS.
   STILL...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVER
   NE LA AND WRN MS WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND
   WIND DAMAGE.

   ..BROYLES/THOMPSON.. 03/31/2016


   ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LIX...LZK...LCH...SHV...

   LAT...LON   33448867 32658963 31779077 30939195 31019285 31279308
               31869320 32769219 34009071 34818962 34548855 33908834
               33448867 

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Page last modified: March 31, 2016
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