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Mesoscale Discussion 307
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0307
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0316 AM CDT MON APR 07 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN AL...WRN FL PANHANDLE...SERN/S-CNTRL
   MS...SERN LA

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 66...

   VALID 070816Z - 071015Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 66 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH TORNADOES CONTINUES
   ACROSS TORNADO WATCH 66.

   DISCUSSION...SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT MARITIME TROPICAL AIR WITH
   DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 60S CONTINUES TO EXTEND NWD ACROSS
   PARTS OF CNTRL AL. DEWPOINT INCREASES OF 1-3F IN THE PAST 3 HOURS
   SIGNAL MARGINAL DESTABILIZATION BEHIND A NWD-RETREATING BOUNDARY
   THAT DELINEATES THE NRN EXTENT OF THIS MOIST AIR. ABUNDANT
   CONVECTION FROM E-CNTRL MS TO NRN AL IS PROVIDING SFC THETA-E
   DEFICITS TO ANCHOR A SECONDARY BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM SFC LOW PRESSURE
   S OF JACKSON TO E OF MERIDIAN TO E-CNTRL AL. HOWEVER...WITH 2-3-MB
   PRESSURE FALLS IN 2 HOURS NOTED FARTHER N -- AIDED BY WAA
   ACCOMPANYING A LLJ -- THE ISALLOBARIC MASS RESPONSE MAY DRIVE THIS
   LATTER BOUNDARY SLOWLY NWD. AS SUCH...THE GREATEST SHORT-TERM /NEXT
   COUPLE OF HOURS OR SO/ TORNADO POTENTIAL INCLUDES CNTRL AL WHERE MXX
   VWP SAMPLES A LARGE/CURVED HODOGRAPH SUPPORTING 300-600 M2/S2 OF
   0-1-KM SRH...AND RECENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THE DEVELOPMENT OF
   MIXED SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELL/QLCS MODES.

   STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SAMPLED BY LIX VWP MAY ALSO ENHANCE THE SVR
   TSTM/TORNADO RISK IN SERN LA WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING NEWD FROM
   THE GULF...WITH CONVECTION EXHIBITING MIXED MODE/EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS
   AMIDST SFC DEWPOINTS AROUND 70F. LOCAL EXTENSIONS OF EARLIER TORNADO
   WATCH 64 HAVE BEEN COORDINATED WITH WFO LAKE CHARLES LA TO ADDRESS
   THIS SIMILAR POTENTIAL INTO S-CNTRL LA.

   ..COHEN.. 04/07/2014


   ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

   LAT...LON   29509128 33568821 33568495 29558815 29509128 

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Page last modified: April 07, 2014
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