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Mesoscale Discussion 308
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0308
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0214 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF FAR ERN AR...WRN/MIDDLE TN...AND WRN KY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 68...

   VALID 311914Z - 312045Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 68
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND/LARGE HAIL RISK WILL CONTINUE
   ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF WW 68. TORNADO THREAT INCREASING ACROSS
   PORTIONS OF SWRN TN...WITH NEW WW LIKELY SOON IN THIS REGION.

   DISCUSSION...TWO CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE POSED A DAMAGING
   WIND/LARGE HAIL RISK ACROSS ERN AR INTO WRN TN...AND ACROSS WRN KY.
   THE STRONGER CLUSTER IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS WRN TN WHERE
   INSTABILITY IS GREATER. THE CLUSTER ACROSS WRN KY WILL CONTINUE TO
   MOVE EWD INTO A LESS FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT PER SFC
   OBSERVATIONS AND THE 18Z SOUNDING FROM KBNA. HOWEVER...VISIBLE
   SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SOME CLEARING ACROSS CNTRL KY AND MIDDLE
   TN...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME MODEST DOWNSTREAM DESTABILIZATION
   THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. ACROSS SWRN TN...BACKED SFC WINDS
   NEAR A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH STRONGER SFC HEATING
   AND MORE ROBUST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASING
   TORNADO THREAT...WITH A NEW WATCH LIKELY IN THIS REGION SOON.

   ..GLEASON.. 03/31/2016


   ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...

   LAT...LON   35199092 35409079 35598994 36078942 36948874 37038841
               37578773 37698710 37768652 37198656 36058713 35078795
               35058864 35039026 35199092 

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Page last modified: March 31, 2016
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