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Mesoscale Discussion 308
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0308
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0542 AM CDT MON APR 07 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF GA...CNTRL/SRN AL...THE FL
   PANHANDLE...SERN/S-CNTRL MS...SERN LA

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 66...

   VALID 071042Z - 071245Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 66 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING TORNADOES
   CONTINUES ACROSS REMAINING VALID PORTIONS OF TORNADO WATCH 66. A
   REPLACEMENT TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED PRIOR TO 13Z INTO PARTS OF
   SRN/ERN AL...GA...AND THE FL PANHANDLE.

   DISCUSSION...THE GREATEST TORNADO RISK IN THE SHORT TERM WILL
   ACCOMPANY STORMS DEVELOPING IN LOWER 70S SFC DEWPOINTS FROM FAR SERN
   LA AND SWRN AL ALONG CONFLUENCE AXES ANALYZED S OF A MARINE WARM
   FRONT. AS THIS FRONT RETREATED NWD THROUGH THE NIGHT...IT MERGED
   WITH A SHALLOW...CONVECTIVELY AUGMENTED BOUNDARY DRAPED W-E ACROSS
   CNTRL AL. THE AFOREMENTIONED STORMS WILL DEVELOP NEWD INTO CNTRL AL
   TOWARD THIS LATTER BOUNDARY WITH TIME WHILE MATURING ALONG
   CONFLUENCE AXES AND EXHIBIT MIXED SEMI-DISCRETE AND QLCS CONVECTIVE
   MODES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL HAVE A TORNADO POTENTIAL...ALONG WITH THE
   RISK FOR DMGG WINDS...PROVIDED AROUND 300-400 M2/S2 OF 0-1-KM SRH
   PER MXX VWP DATA -- ACCOUNTING FOR OBSERVED STORM MOTIONS. FARTHER W
   INVOF A COLD FRONT ANALYZED S OF RE-DEVELOPING SFC LOW PRESSURE
   LOCATED N OF GREENWOOD MS...MORE LINEARLY ORGANIZED CONVECTION HAS
   SHOWN SIGNS OF WEAKENING FROM SERN LA TO S-CNTRL MS...WITH THE
   PRIMARY SHORT-TERM FOCUS FOR SVR STORMS FARTHER E INTO AL AS
   PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED.

   WITH TIME...THE NEWD ADVANCE OF A MID-LEVEL VORT MAX CURRENTLY
   APPROACHING THE MID-SOUTH PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL BE ASSOCIATED
   WITH A TENDENCY FOR THE ONGOING SVR RISK TO SPREAD E OF ONGOING
   TORNADO WATCH 66. THE ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE TO MODEST SFC PRESSURE
   FALLS ANALYZED ACROSS N GA SUGGESTS A CONTINUED TENDENCY FOR
   BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTENING/MARGINAL DESTABILIZATION DOWNSTREAM INTO
   PARTS OF GA AND FARTHER E ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE. GIVEN THE
   CONTINUATION OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ACCOMPANYING A 40-50-KT LLJ
   JUXTAPOSED WITH AT LEAST MARGINAL BUOYANCY...A SVR TSTM/TORNADO RISK
   WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING. A NEW TORNADO WATCH REPLACING
   EXISTING TORNADO WATCH 66 WILL BE REQUIRED PRIOR TO 13Z. THE NEW
   WATCH WILL LIKELY INCLUDE ERN PORTIONS OF ONGOING WW 66 AND AREAS
   FARTHER E.

   ..COHEN.. 04/07/2014


   ATTN...WFO...GSP...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

   LAT...LON   33118801 34068556 34298329 33078240 30318388 29688588
               29378966 29549144 31498993 33118801 

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Page last modified: April 07, 2014
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