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Mesoscale Discussion 308
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0308
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0630 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SRN MS...ADJACENT SERN LA...AND
   SWRN AL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 152330Z - 160130Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
   EARLY EVENING ACROSS SRN INTO CENTRAL MS...ADJACENT SERN LA...AND
   PORTIONS OF SWRN AL.  LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH
   THE STRONGER STORMS. GIVEN THE SHORT-TERM SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...
   WATCH ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...AT 23Z...MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED A FEW
   LEFT-MOVING STORMS LOCATED ACROSS FAR SRN MS INTO SWRN AL.  THIS
   ACTIVITY WAS TENDING TO FORM IN VICINITY OF A NWD MOVING OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY...WHICH EXTENDED FROM PIKE AND WALTHALL COUNTIES MS TO NRN
   GREENE COUNTY MS AND THEN INTO NRN WASHINGTON TO NRN CLARKE COUNTIES
   AL.   ALTHOUGH THERE WERE ALSO STORMS LOCATED FARTHER EAST INTO
   SOUTH-CENTRAL AL AND THE WRN FL PANHANDLE...THE THERMODYNAMIC AND
   KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENTS ACROSS SRN MS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MORE
   FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS UNTIL AROUND SUNSET.  

   SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THE SRN EXTENT OF A MID MS VALLEY TO
   MID-SOUTH SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NEWD THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY
   AT THIS TIME.  FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO THIS FEATURE AND A
   SWLY MIDLEVEL JET STREAK SPREADING ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL
   CONTINUE TO PROVIDE FAVORABLE VENTING OF THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS. 
   THIS COMBINED WITH RESIDUAL MODERATE INSTABILITY...EXTENDING FROM
   SRN/CENTRAL MS THROUGH SWRN AL AND THE WRN FL PANHANDLE...AND
   EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 30-40 KT SUGGESTS A THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS
   WILL PERSIST UNTIL 01-02Z.  THEREAFTER...A STABILIZING BOUNDARY
   LAYER WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING IS EXPECTED TO THEN LIMIT THE
   DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER STORMS.  THIS SCENARIO FOR A CONTINUED
   SHORT-TERM SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS SUPPORTED BY THE 12Z 4-KM NSSL.

   ..PETERS/CORFIDI.. 04/15/2015


   ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

   LAT...LON   32378735 31948748 31298850 30908936 30959063 31179100
               31879108 32539068 32918945 32938856 32568756 32378735 

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Page last modified: April 16, 2015
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