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Mesoscale Discussion 309
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0309
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0330 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...SE LA...SRN MS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 312030Z - 312230Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT MAY INCREASE ACROSS SE LA AND SRN MS OVER
   THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE MAY OCCUR
   WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN
   ISOLATED AND WW ISSUANCE CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS SLY FLOW ACROSS SE LA AND SRN
   MS WITH SFC DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. THE MOIST
   AIRMASS IS CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG
   AS IS ESTIMATED BY MESOCALE ANALYSIS DATA. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
   HAVE DEVELOPED IN THIS MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS FROM NORTH OF
   LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN NWD TO NEAR JACKSON MS ALONG THE AXIS OF THE
   STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW. IN ADDITION TO THE INSTABILITY...MODERATE
   DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS PRESENT ACROSS THE MCD AREA ACCORDING TO
   REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS. 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 40 TO 50 KT ALONG WITH THE
   INSTABILITY AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL MAKE SUPERCELLS
   WITH LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...WEAK LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL
   HELP KEEP MOST OF THE STORMS MULTICELLULAR. DUE TO THE MOIST
   AIRMASS...CELLS COULD ALSO PRODUCE WET DOWNBURSTS. SHORT-TERM MODEL
   FORECASTS SUGGEST THAT THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE NEWD
   INTO WW 70.

   ..BROYLES/THOMPSON.. 03/31/2016


   ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

   LAT...LON   30788859 30558913 30309008 30059120 30269168 30869163
               31709084 31848866 31148840 30788859 

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Page last modified: March 31, 2016
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