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Mesoscale Discussion 309
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0309
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1217 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...TX PANHANDLE NORTHWARD THROUGH PARTS OF WRN AND
   CNTRL KANSAS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 161717Z - 161915Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SOME RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL MAY EXIST IN STRONGER STORMS NOW
   FORMING ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.  AS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
   BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON...THIS THREAT MAY LESSEN.  A
   WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...ONGOING INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LIKELY IS
   RESPONSE TO LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AN
   INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD...DOWNSTREAM OF THE FOUR
   CORNERS CLOSED LOW.  THIS MAY BE AIDED BY FORCING ON THE
   SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE PIVOTING AROUND THE
   UPSTREAM CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER.  IT IS NOT CLEAR HOW LONG THIS
   LATTER FORCING WILL PERSIST...BUT A ZONE OF ENHANCED LOWER/MID
   TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION PROBABLY WILL MAINTAIN THUNDERSTORM
   DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

   THIS CONVECTION MAY REMAIN ROOTED ABOVE A GENERALLY COOL..STABLE
   BOUNDARY LAYER...REINFORCED BY EVAPORATIVE COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH
   INCREASING PRECIPITATION.  WHILE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY BE
   SUPPORTING THE RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL IN THE PRESENCE OF MODEST CLOUD
   BEARING LAYER SHEAR...AT LEAST INITIALLY...THIS THREAT MAY LESSEN
   WITH TIME AS CONVECTION BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD.

   ..KERR/THOMPSON.. 04/16/2015


   ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...AMA...

   LAT...LON   37720178 39670114 39879917 39169737 36589946 36430068
               36570125 37720178 

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Page last modified: April 16, 2015
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