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Mesoscale Discussion 309
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0309
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0756 AM CDT MON APR 07 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF W KY AND NW/MIDDLE TN

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 071256Z - 071430Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE MARGINALLY SVR HAIL THIS
   MORNING...BUT WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...STRONG DCVA PRECEDING A MID-LEVEL VORT MAX APPROACHING
   THE LOWER OH VALLEY PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MAY CONTINUE TO
   ENCOURAGE THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS THE
   REGION THIS MORNING. RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES --
   AROUND 7 C/KM BETWEEN H7 AND H5 PER 12Z BNA RAOB -- WILL BE
   REINFORCED BY MID-LEVEL ADIABATIC COOLING RELATED TO DCVA/ASCENT.
   AND...WITH A 40-45-KT LLJ PER OHX VWP SUPPORTING AMPLE LOW-LEVEL
   MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION...STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO BLOSSOM
   THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...STATIC STABILITY WITHIN THE
   BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY PREVENT THE STORMS FROM BECOMING
   SFC-BASED. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE SPORADIC
   MARGINALLY SVR HAIL GIVEN STRONG DEEP SHEAR AND ELEVATED BUOYANCY.

   ..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 04/07/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...

   LAT...LON   36298876 37348848 37888750 37768609 36888618 35868694
               35848839 36298876 

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Page last modified: April 07, 2014
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