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Mesoscale Discussion 310
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0310
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0348 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF S-CNTRL KY AND MIDDLE TN

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 312048Z - 312215Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SEVERE RISK...WITH ALL HAZARDS POSSIBLE INCLUDING ISOLATED
   TORNADOES...WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WW ISSUANCE
   POSSIBLE IN THE SHORT TERM.

   DISCUSSION...LINEAR CONVECTION IN SWRN TN CURRENTLY POSES MAINLY A
   DAMAGING WIND RISK AS IT PROGRESSES EWD AROUND 35-40 KT. THE AIRMASS
   ACROSS MUCH OF MIDDLE TN INTO NWRN AL IS WEAKLY UNSTABLE...WITH
   MLCAPE UP TO 500 J/KG PER RECENT RAP MESOANALYSIS. A RESIDUAL
   OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM PRIOR CONVECTION TO THE S OF THE MCD AREA HAS
   LIMITED MORE ROBUST MOISTURE RETURN SO FAR...AND WITH WIDESPREAD
   CLOUDINESS PRESENT PER VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE PROSPECT FOR
   ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON REMAINS LIMITED.
   REGARDLESS...STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 50 KT WILL CONTINUE
   TO SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION.

   ..GLEASON/THOMPSON.. 03/31/2016


   ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...

   LAT...LON   35808791 36218769 36508726 36718702 37008693 37088661
               36928614 36518640 35268661 35028684 35028793 35808791 

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Page last modified: March 31, 2016
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