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Mesoscale Discussion 311
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0311
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1245 PM CDT MON APR 07 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN SC/SERN GA/NRN FL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 071745Z - 071845Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...MODEST/GRADUAL AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE
   DISCUSSION AREA SUGGESTS THAT SOME INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
   INTENSITY/POTENTIAL SEVERITY WILL OCCUR AS CONVECTION MOVES INTO
   THIS REGION.  NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SHOW GRADUAL
   MOISTENING/DESTABILIZATION ONGOING AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING CONVECTIVE
   LINE.  MEANWHILE...A MODEST INCREASE IN REFLECTIVITY ALONG THE LINE
   HAS BEEN NOTED OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR OR SO...ALONG WITH A COUPLE
   OF BOWING STRUCTURES -- LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO THE IMPROVING
   THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.  

   AS CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION ENSUES...ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN
   INTENSITY/ORGANIZATION  WITH STORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LINE APPEARS
   LIKELY -- ALONG WITH A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN SEVERE RISK.  GIVEN
   THESE FACTORS...A NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   THE DISCUSSION AREA.

   ..GOSS/MEAD.. 04/07/2014


   ATTN...WFO...CHS...TBW...JAX...FFC...TAE...

   LAT...LON   30558135 29398248 29498385 29908473 31938282 33058049
               32338028 30978137 30558135 

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Page last modified: April 07, 2014
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