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Mesoscale Discussion 311
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0311
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0134 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SRN TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 161834Z - 162030Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE
   AND INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL POSE A
   RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. TRENDS IN
   COVERAGE/INTENSITY ARE BEING MONITORED AND A WATCH IS POSSIBLE BY
   20Z.

   DISCUSSION...TSTMS HAVE EXPANDED IN AREAL COVERAGE OVER PORTIONS OF
   CENTRAL/SRN TX SINCE 17Z...AND WERE LOCATED WITHIN A MOIST/UNSTABLE
   AND GENERALLY UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT.  LARGE-SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED
   WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTED JET
   MAXIMUM OVER FAR SOUTH TX/NRN MEXICO WAS LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO THE
   UPWARD TREND IN COVERAGE. 

   TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE LOWER/MID 80S...AND
   COMBINED WITH 65-70 DEGREE DEW POINTS AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES WILL RESULT IN MLCAPE BETWEEN 2000 AND 2500 J/KG. DEEP-LAYER
   SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL
   AND DAMAGING WINDS. WHILE LOW-LEVEL FOCUSING MECHANISMS REMAIN
   WEAK/NEBULOUS...STORM-SCALE INTERACTIONS IN THE FORM OF MERGING COLD
   POOLS/OUTFLOW MAY SERVE TO ENHANCE AREAS OF GREATER SVR THREAT
   THROUGH THE AFTN HOURS.

   CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AND A WATCH IS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO
   20Z

   ..BUNTING/THOMPSON.. 04/16/2015


   ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...SJT...

   LAT...LON   28799695 29179854 29869913 31089920 31599903 32079841
               32199767 32179679 32039619 31909580 31599527 30929500
               29859537 29129612 28799695 

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Page last modified: April 16, 2015
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