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Mesoscale Discussion 312
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0312
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0150 PM CDT MON APR 07 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...E CENTRAL AND NERN NC

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 071850Z - 072015Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...WEAK HEATING/MOISTENING IS ONGOING ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF
   NC...WITHIN A KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF UPDRAFT
   ORGANIZATION.  WE ARE MONITORING TRENDS ACROSS THIS AREA FOR SIGNS
   OF INCREASING SHORT-TERM RISK -- WHICH COULD REQUIRE WW ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A STEADILY MOISTENING
   BOUNDARY LAYER...AND WITH FILTERED SUNSHINE ALLOWING MODEST
   HEATING...SOME DESTABILIZATION OF THE AIRMASS IS EVIDENT.  A FEW
   CONVECTIVE CELLS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA -- PERHAPS IN
   RESPONSE TO WEAK UVV ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTLE CIRCULATION MOVING OFF
   THE SERN VA COAST ATTM.

   GIVEN A BACKGROUND KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE AREA THAT IS
   SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING UPDRAFTS...SOME RISK FOR DAMAGING GUSTS OR
   ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO IS EVIDENT AS THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS
   IMPROVE.  THAT SAID...LIMITED AREAL AND TEMPORAL NATURE OF ANY
   ENHANCED THREAT MAY LIMIT THE NEED FOR WW ISSUANCE IN THE ABSENCE OF
   AN UPSWING IN CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

   ..GOSS/MEAD.. 04/07/2014


   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...ILM...

   LAT...LON   34777806 36417641 36537569 35517541 35187552 34457662
               34777806 

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Page last modified: April 07, 2014
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