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Mesoscale Discussion 312
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0312
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0509 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/CNTRL IND...FAR SRN IL...WRN KY...FAR SERN MO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 312209Z - 312345Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SRN IL INTO CNTRL IND MAY
   POSE A THREAT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO.
   ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP FARTHER S INTO FAR SERN MO AND
   WRN KY. A WW IS POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE AND LIGHTNING LOOPS SHOW A
   LINE OF TSTMS ALONG/AHEAD OF AN EWD MOVING COLD FRONT FROM SRN IL
   INTO CNTRL IND. AN INCREASING CU FIELD IS ALSO NOTED FARTHER S ALONG
   THE COLD FRONT INTO FAR SERN MO...WHERE FORCING FOR ASCENT
   ACCOMPANYING THE TRAILING PORTION OF A WELL-DEFINED UPPER VORT MAX
   IS OVERSPREADING THE REGION. MODEST AIR MASS RECOVERY HAS OCCURRED
   AHEAD OF THE LINE IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER CONVECTION...FEATURING A
   NARROW AXIS OF MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG. A STRONG/SVR WIND GUST
   THREAT MAY ACCOMPANY ANY WELL-ORGANIZED BOWING SEGMENT THAT CAN
   EVOLVE. A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT ALSO BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE STRENGTH
   OF LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PRESENT IN REGIONAL VWP DATA. CONVECTIVE TRENDS
   WILL BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT HR FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

   ..ROGERS/CORFIDI.. 03/31/2016


   ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...

   LAT...LON   39548488 38208617 37158726 36808792 36698886 36748961
               36978972 37568951 38048877 39388681 40058578 40198524
               40108491 39548488 

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Page last modified: March 31, 2016
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