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Mesoscale Discussion 313
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0313
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0522 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN LA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 69...

   VALID 312222Z - 312315Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 69
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL SHOULD
   PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE MAINLY SHIFTING INTO WW 70.

   DISCUSSION...A COUPLE SUPERCELLS ACROSS NRN LA ARE BEING SUPPORTED
   BY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITHIN A PERSISTENT EML PLUME AND
   ROBUST MID/UPPER-LEVEL SPEED SHEAR PER POE/JAN VWP DATA. WHILE
   VEERED LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE IMPINGING COLD FRONT SHOULD LIMIT
   THE TORNADO RISK...THE MOSTLY DISCRETE NATURE OF THE CONVECTION WILL
   CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A PRIMARY RISK OF LARGE HAIL. CURRENT CONVECTIVE
   TRENDS SUGGEST THE BULK OF THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD SHIFT INTO WW 70
   BY ABOUT 01Z.

   ..GRAMS.. 03/31/2016


   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV...

   LAT...LON   32139303 32919200 33049163 33039117 32329114 31919133
               31579150 31359179 31359235 31529286 31759316 32139303 

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Page last modified: March 31, 2016
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