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Mesoscale Discussion 313
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0313
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0308 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WRN AND CNTRL KS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 162008Z - 162215Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...PRIMARILY WITH THE
   RISK FOR LARGE HAIL...MAY CONTINUE ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS.  BEYOND
   THAT...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL REMAINS UNCLEAR.

   DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT REMAINS SCATTERED...BUT RATHER
   VIGOROUS WITH STRONGEST CELLS PROBABLY PRODUCING AT LEAST MARGINALLY
   SEVERE HAIL.  THE MOST PROMINENT CONVECTION APPEARS FOCUSED IN CLOSE
   PROXIMITY TO A REMNANT SURFACE FRONT/LOWER TO MID TROPOSPHERIC WIND
   SHIFT...ROUGHLY FROM NEAR DODGE CITY TOWARD SALINA/CONCORDIA...IN
   THE WAKE OF A WEAK IMPULSE WHICH IS NOW SHIFTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO
   THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY.  THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY IS BEING AIDED BY
   INFLOW OF WARMING AND INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR TO THE EAST OF THIS
   BOUNDARY...APPARENTLY CHARACTERIZED BY MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 1000-2000
   J/KG.  TO THE WEST OF THE BOUNDARY...THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS
   WARMING...BUT REMAINS SOMEWHAT DRIER.

   THE LATEST RAPID REFRESH SUGGEST THAT MID-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS
   SUPPORTIVE OF MODERATE TO STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS MUCH OF
   WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS.  HOWEVER...SUBSTANTIAL WEAKENING OF
   MID-LEVEL WIND FIELDS IS FORECAST IN THE DIFLUENT REGION EAST OF THE
   FOUR CORNERS LOW WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  AS THIS OCCURS...AND
   CONVECTION CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE...IT REMAINS
   UNCLEAR HOW MUCH LONGER ANY APPRECIABLE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
   WILL CONTINUE.

   ..KERR/THOMPSON.. 04/16/2015


   ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...AMA...

   LAT...LON   39210134 39710058 39839883 39419684 37989828 37129946
               36870048 37190121 39210134 

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Page last modified: April 16, 2015
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