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Mesoscale Discussion 314
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0314
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0406 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WEST TX...FAR SWRN OK

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 162106Z - 162330Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
   DEVELOP WITHIN A REGIME OF ONLY MODEST LOW-LEVEL ASCENT /PRIMARILY
   EMANATING FROM PBL CIRCULATIONS/ ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL/WRN TX. WHILE
   MID-LEVEL FLOW IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...DIFFLUENT HIGH-LEVEL
   FLOW IS SUFFICIENTLY STRONG FOR CONVECTIVE VENTILATION AND DEEP
   SHEAR FOR SUSTAINED/OCCASIONALLY ORGANIZED CONVECTION. WITH H7-H5
   LAPSE RATES OF 7-8 C/KM SURMOUNTING MIDDLE/UPPER 50S SFC
   DEWPOINTS...MLCAPE AROUND 1500-2500 J/KG WILL SUPPORT ROBUST
   UPDRAFTS WITH ISOLATED TO PERHAPS WIDELY SCATTERED SVR HAIL/WIND
   POSSIBLE. THIS MAY WARRANT WW ISSUANCE...ESPECIALLY IF AREAS OF
   UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH WERE TO FOSTER GREATER-COVERAGE SVR-WIND
   POTENTIAL.

   ..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 04/16/2015


   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...

   LAT...LON   29720088 30030281 30770308 31640182 33540125 34570108
               34639937 34039852 32149871 30969923 29999976 29720088 

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Page last modified: April 16, 2015
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