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Mesoscale Discussion 314
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0314
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0549 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MIDDLE TN...S-CNTRL/SERN KY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 71...

   VALID 312249Z - 312345Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 71
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...PRIMARY STRONG TO SVR WIND GUST THREAT WITHIN WW 71 IS
   ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL LINE SEGMENT MOVING THROUGH S-CNTRL KY. THIS
   THREAT MAY EXTEND SLIGHTLY E OF WW 71 INTO SERN KY...BUT DRIER AIR
   ACROSS THIS AREA SHOULD LEAD TO A GENERAL REDUCTION IN TSTM
   INTENSITY WITH EWD PROGRESSION.

   DISCUSSION...A LONG-LIVED LINE SEGMENT CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EWD
   ACROSS S-CNTRL KY...WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF STRONG TO SVR WIND
   GUSTS. THIS ACTIVITY IS RAPIDLY APPROACHING THE ERN EDGE OF WW
   71...AND THE ACCOMPANYING WIND THREAT MAY EXTEND FARTHER E INTO
   PARTS OF SERN KY. HOWEVER...RECENT SFC OBS CONFIRM DRIER AIR IS
   PRESENT ACROSS THIS AREA WITH SFC DEW POINTS IN THE LOW-MID 50S F.
   GIVEN THE RELATIVELY LIMITED BUOYANCY HERE...THE WIND THREAT SHOULD
   BECOME MORE LOCALIZED WITH EWD PROGRESSION...AND A NEW DOWNSTREAM WW
   IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

   ..ROGERS.. 03/31/2016


   ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...

   LAT...LON   37138330 36408423 35938581 36288665 36788670 37498562
               37898378 37828303 37138330 

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Page last modified: March 31, 2016
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