Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 314
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 314 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0314
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0232 PM CDT MON APR 07 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND WRN KY INTO SRN OHIO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 071932Z - 072030Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD
   E-NE ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL AND WRN KY INTO SRN OHIO THIS AFTERNOON.
   ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THIS FAST
   MOVING CONVECTION. HOWEVER...A TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH ANY
   BETTER ORGANIZED STORM THAT MAY DEVELOP. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED
   FOR POSSIBLE WW.

   DISCUSSION...SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDINESS HAS ALLOWED LOW-TOPPED
   CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS
   CNTRL KY SWD INTO MIDDLE TN. DEEP LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT
   ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTING SHORTWAVE IMPULSE FROM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
   WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION AND SUPPORT CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT AS A
   SFC LOW NEAR LOUISVILLE TRACKS NEWD TOWARD SW OHIO. DOWNSTREAM
   TEMPERATURES HAVE MODESTLY WARMED INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH
   DEWPOINTS APPROACHING THE MID 50S...RESULTING IN ADEQUATE
   DESTABILIZATION FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS /MLCAPE LESS THAN 500 J PER
   KG/. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL LEAD TO FAST STORM MOTION...AND
   COUPLED WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES /NEAR 7-7.5 DEG C PER KM/
   POSSIBLY SOME LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELL OR BOWING STRUCTURES. BACKED LOW
   LEVEL FLOW AS INDICATED BY REGIONAL WSR88-D VAD WIND PROFILES
   SUGGEST AT LEAST A SMALL THREAT OF A TORNADO WITH ANY BETTER
   ORGANIZED STORMS. STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS ALSO ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN
   STRENGTH OF DEEP LAYER FLOW AND AFOREMENTIONED FAST STORM MOTION.
   LACK OF STRONGER INSTABILITY AND DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD
   LIMIT SEVERE COVERAGE AND WHILE A WW IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
   TIME...TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR MORE ROBUST/ORGANIZED
   DEVELOPMENT.

   ..LEITMAN/MEAD.. 04/07/2014


   ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...

   LAT...LON   36388537 36588582 36988597 37568602 38298545 38838484
               39578387 39858320 39868242 39778152 39608116 39248100
               38858112 37788226 36278414 36388537 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: April 07, 2014
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities