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Mesoscale Discussion 315
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0315
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0444 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 162144Z - 170015Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS INCREASING ACROSS
   PORTIONS OF WRN OK AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO INTO THE EVENING
   HOURS.

   DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING ACROSS NWRN OK --
   I.E. ALONG THE ERN EDGE OF ANVIL DEBRIS RELATED TO ONGOING
   CONVECTION ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE. IMPLIED BAROCLINICITY FROM ANVIL
   SHADING/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING MAY SUPPORT CONTINUED CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSIFICATION IN THIS REGIME OF LITTLE MLCINH.
   ALSO...CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE TX PANHANDLE MAY EDGE EWD INTO
   MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS WRN OK LATER THIS EVENING...THOUGH
   THIS PROCESS MAY ONLY BE GRADUAL GIVEN THE LARGELY MERIDIONAL
   COMPONENT OF THE CLOUD-LAYER FLOW. ALSO...EVOLVING CONVECTION NEAR
   THE RED RIVER MAY EXTEND NWD WITH TIME. GIVEN 1500-2500 J/KG OF
   MLCAPE AIDED BY H7-H5 LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.0-7.5 C/KM...BUOYANCY
   WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ROBUST CONVECTION WITH SVR HAIL/WIND POSSIBLE
   DESPITE ONLY MODEST MID/HIGH-LEVEL FLOW. A NOCTURNALLY STRENGTHENING
   LLJ AND RELATED WAA MAY ALSO ENCOURAGE TSTM PERSISTENCE INTO THE
   EVENING...AND COULD SUPPORT A TORNADO CONDITIONAL UPON THE
   MAINTENANCE OF DISCRETE/SEMI-DISCRETE STORM MODES -- I.E. NOT A
   LIKELY SCENARIO.

   ..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 04/16/2015


   ATTN...WFO...OUN...

   LAT...LON   34859979 36829981 36769837 35319836 34799869 34859979 

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Page last modified: April 17, 2015
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