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Mesoscale Discussion 315
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0315
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0309 PM CDT MON APR 07 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN/CNTRL TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 072009Z - 072145Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COULD POSE A
   MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND AND HAIL THREAT INTO EARLY EVENING. ISOLATED
   NATURE OF SEVERE THREAT SHOULD PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW.

   DISCUSSION...AMPLE SFC HEATING HAS ALLOWED FOR ADEQUATE SFC BASED
   INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU IN THE
   VICINITY OF AN UPPER SHORTWAVE IMPULSE TRACKING ACROSS THE TX BIG
   BEND REGION. EFFECTIVE SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 35-40 KT WILL AID IN
   STORM ORGANIZATION WITH SOME ROTATING UPDRAFTS POSSIBLE. STEEP LOW
   LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INVERTED-V TYPE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL
   SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS...BUT RATHER LIGHT LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY LIMIT
   OVERALL STRENGTH. ADDITIONALLY...STEEP MIDEVEL LAPSE RATES AND COOL
   TEMPERATURES ALOFT MAY AID IN MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IN STRONGER
   CELLS. LACK OF STRONGER INSTABILITY/BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD
   KEEP THREAT LIMITED AND A WW IS NOT EXPECTED.

   ..LEITMAN/MEAD.. 04/07/2014


   ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...

   LAT...LON   29680039 30189952 30219830 29669746 28939722 28469767
               28309887 28439979 29020032 29680039 

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Page last modified: April 07, 2014
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