MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0315
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0648 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/ERN AL...FL PANHANDLE...AND PARTS OF
   SRN/CENTRAL GA
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 87...
   
   VALID 281148Z - 281245Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 87 CONTINUES.
   
   THREAT FOR TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUES
   ACROSS WW 87.
   
   THREAT FOR ISOLATED HAIL MAY INCREASE THROUGH 13Z ACROSS CENTRAL
   GA...TO THE N OF WW 87.  PARTS OF CENTRAL GA WILL BE MONITORED FOR A
   POSSIBLE WATCH IF STORM INTENSITY/COVERAGE INCREASES.
   
   LATEST SURFACE ANALYSES INDICATED A WARM FRONT HAD ADVANCED INLAND
   TO FAR SERN AL/SRN GA WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S INTO
   SWRN GA.  THE MOVEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT IS IN RESPONSE TO A BROAD
   ZONE OF STRENGTHENING SLY LOW LEVEL WINDS /45-60 KT PER VWP DATA/
   ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE INTO ERN AL AND MUCH OF GA THIS MORNING.
   
   ...TORNADO WATCH 87...
   AT 1130Z...REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED AN INTENSE HP SUPERCELL OVER
   SERN AL /DALE AND GENEVA COUNTIES/ TRACKING ENE AT 35 KT ALONG THE
   RETREATING WARM FRONT.  AT 1020Z...BASEBALL SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED
   WITH THIS STORM IN COVINGTON COUNTY AL.  STRONG EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES
   HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR /250-550 M2/S2/ ATTENDANT TO
   THE STRENGTHENING LLJ.  THUS...TORNADO DEVELOPMENT REMAINS LIKELY
   ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN PART OF WW 87.
   
   ADDITIONAL TORNADO THREAT REMAINS ACROSS SWRN PORTION OF WW 87
   THROUGH THE WRN FL PANHANDLE AND SWRN AL...WHERE REGIONAL RADARS
   INDICATED TSTMS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP IN THIS AREA OF MODERATE
   INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 40-50 KT.
   
   ...CENTRAL GA...
   AREA OF TSTMS EXTENDING FROM EAST CENTRAL AL INTO CENTRAL GA WILL
   CONTINUE TO MOVE NWD...WITH THIS ACTIVITY LOCATED WITHIN WAA REGIME
   ALONG AND N OF RETREATING WARM FRONT.  ALTHOUGH THE AIR MASS IS MORE
   STABLE WITH NWD EXTENT...MUCAPE 200-400 J/KG OVER THIS REGION
   COMBINED WITH INCREASING EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES /45-55 KT/
   SUGGEST ISOLATED HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
   INTO MID MORNING.  HOWEVER...AS WARM FRONT MOVES NWD INTO CENTRAL GA
   LATER THIS MORNING/AIR MASS DESTABILIZES...THE POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE
   BASED STORMS SHOULD INCREASE TO THE N OF WW 87...AND A NEW WW WOULD
   BE NEEDED.
   
   ..PETERS.. 03/28/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...
   
   LAT...LON   29908830 31108762 31878647 31948498 32598495 32968513
               32958409 32768279 32258221 31258279 29618330 29268476
               29348547 29848633 29908830