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Mesoscale Discussion 316
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0316
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0750 PM CDT MON APR 07 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN FL...SERN GA

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 68...69...

   VALID 080050Z - 080145Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 68...69...CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...WHILE ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT REMAINS ACROSS PARTS OF
   EXTREME SERN GA AND NRN FL...CONVECTIVE TRENDS SUGGEST OVERALL
   THREAT IS RATHER LOW.

   DISCUSSION...SW-NE BAND OF PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION...ROUGHLY 75 MI
   WIDE...EXTENDS ACROSS THE NERN GULF BASIN INTO COASTAL GA.  THIS
   ACTIVITY IS PROGRESSING SLOWLY EWD THIS EVENING WITH NEW ELEVATED
   TSTMS EVOLVING ATOP MODIFIED AIR MASS APPROACHING THE FL PANHANDLE. 
   LATEST WDSSII DATA SUGGESTS ANY HAIL WITHIN STRONGER UPDRAFTS IS
   LIKELY WELL BELOW SEVERE LEVELS.  00Z SOUNDING FROM TLH IS
   CONTAMINATED BY ONGOING CONVECTION BUT TBW EXHIBITS SUBSTANTIAL
   INSTABILITY...SBCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1500 J/KG...WITH DEEP LAYER
   VERTICAL SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS.

   WITH LARGE SCALE FORCING LIFTING WELL NORTH OF THIS REGION INTO THE
   OH VALLEY...THE GREATEST THREAT OF SEVERE MAY ACCOMPANY STRONGER
   LINE SEGMENTS THAT EVOLVE WITHIN THE AFOREMENTIONED BAND OF
   CONVECTION OVER THE NERN GULF. IF A SQUALL LINE CAN EMERGE AND MOVE
   INLAND THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS MAY INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING.

   ..DARROW.. 04/08/2014


   ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...TAE...

   LAT...LON   29708457 30838252 30868117 29958087 28538345 29708457 

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Page last modified: April 08, 2014
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