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Mesoscale Discussion 316
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0316
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0709 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN GA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 010009Z - 010145Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND A BRIEF TORNADO
   MAY PERSIST FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS...BUT OVERALL THREAT SHOULD
   REMAIN TOO LOCALIZED TO WARRANT A WW ISSUANCE AT THIS POINT.

   DISCUSSION...A PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE COMPLEX HAS BEEN LONG-LIVED
   ALONG THE EDGE OF THE CAPE GRADIENT WITHIN A MODEST LOW-LEVEL WAA
   REGIME. 0-3 KM SHEAR IS MODERATE /AROUND 25 KT/ PER TLH VWP
   DATA...WHICH HAS GENERALLY SUPPORTED OUTFLOW-DOMINANT VELOCITY
   SIGNATURES AMID STRONGER DEEP SHEAR. DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT REMAINS
   RELATIVELY DRY /LOW 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS/...SUGGESTING AREAL
   EXTENT OF ANY SEVERE RISK WILL BE CONFINED. BUT A CONTINUED FEED OF
   UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS FROM THE NRN GULF SUGGESTS
   THE RISK FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND A BRIEF TORNADO WILL BE
   NON-NEGLIGIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

   ..GRAMS/CORFIDI.. 04/01/2016


   ATTN...WFO...TAE...

   LAT...LON   31398398 31408352 31118316 30648334 30648391 30758465
               30948493 31178459 31398398 

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Page last modified: April 01, 2016
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