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Mesoscale Discussion 316
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0316
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0526 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF EAST TX AND WRN LA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 162226Z - 162330Z

   CORRECTED AREAS AFFECTED TO INCLUDE WRN LA.

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A WW MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS PARTS OF EAST TX /TO THE EAST OF
   WW 60/ INTO WRN LA.  ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
   WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS EAST TX AND WRN LA...WITH SPORADIC
   OCCURRENCES OF LARGE HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS.

   DISCUSSION...AT 2150Z...MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED AN EXTENSIVE
   AREA OF CONVECTION/TSTMS ONGOING FROM SERN TX THROUGH CENTRAL/SRN LA
   WITH THIS ACTIVITY LOCATED IN VICINITY OF A SURFACE WIND SHIFT. 
   ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM THE NERN
   EXTENT OF WW 60.  A SECOND W-E BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE SITUATED FROM
   30 S DAL TO 35 SSE TYR TO 30 WSW IER.  THE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS EAST
   TX INTO WRN LA HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
   EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR PRESENTLY AT 30-35 KT...GIVEN STRONGER
   MID-UPPER LEVEL WINDS.  THIS PARAMETER SPACE IS FAVORABLE FOR
   MULTICELLS AND SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE
   PRIMARY THREATS.  TORNADO THREAT SHOULD TEND TO BE LOW...SINCE
   LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC WINDS ARE WEAKER IN THIS REGION PER VADS AT
   SHV/POE.

   GIVEN THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SUSTAINED/ROBUST UPDRAFTS...THE
   PRESENCE OF A COUPLED UPPER LEVEL JET OVER EAST TX INTO NRN LA AND
   SRN AR INTO THIS EVENING WILL PROVIDE FOR STRONG VENTING AND
   ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT.

   ..PETERS/CORFIDI.. 04/16/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...

   LAT...LON   30709554 32129537 32549524 32419351 31459288 30729289
               30349395 30189517 30709554 

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Page last modified: April 16, 2015
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