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Mesoscale Discussion 317
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0317
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0113 AM CDT TUE APR 08 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NORTH FLORIDA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 080613Z - 080845Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THERE WILL EXIST A LOW POTENTIAL FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS AND
   POSSIBLY A TORNADO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WHILE CONDITIONS
   WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS CURRENTLY
   UNLIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES STREAMLINES ORIENTED OBLIQUELY
   TO A SQUALL LINE THAT HAS DEVELOPED FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TOWARD
   THE JACKSONVILLE AREA. THIS WILL MAINTAIN CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SRN
   FLANK OF THE CONVECTION-ESTABLISHED COLD POOL IN TANDEM WITH
   MARGINALLY UNSTABLE INFLOW OWING TO MIDDLE 60S SFC DEWPOINTS
   EXTENDING INTO NORTH FLORIDA. AS SUCH...STRONG STORMS WILL CONTINUE
   SHIFTING NEWD WITHIN THE LINE...WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY DEVELOPING
   NEWD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE LINE SHOULD EDGE VERY SLOWLY SWD
   THROUGH THE NIGHT OWING TO CONVECTIVE PROPAGATION. JAX VWP SAMPLES
   50-65 KT OF MID-LEVEL SWLY FLOW AOA 2 KM AGL THAT WILL BE MORE THAN
   SUFFICIENT FOR SMALL BOWING SEGMENTS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SQUALL LINE
   AND PERHAPS SPORADIC DMGG WIND GUSTS. WITH AROUND 45 KT OF BULK
   SHEAR IN THE 0-1-KM LAYER...THE TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL NOT BE
   ENTIRELY NEGLIGIBLE.

   THESE CONCERNS COULD BE REINFORCED THROUGH THE NIGHT...AS DEEP-LAYER
   MASS RESPONSES ACCOMPANYING THE APPROACH OF A HIGH-AMPLITUDE DEEP
   TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT FAVOR A MODEST INCREASE IN
   HIGH-LEVEL FLOW AND A MODEST STRENGTHENING OF A LLJ. HOWEVER...THESE
   INCREASES WILL NOT BE ABRUPT...WITH THE STRONGER DEEP ASCENT REMOVED
   WELL TO THE W OF THE REGION. GROWING NOCTURNAL CINH MAY PROVE TO BE
   DELETERIOUS TO THE MAINTENANCE OF ROBUST UPDRAFTS...AS COLD POOLS
   POTENTIALLY UNDERCUT ONGOING PARENT CONVECTION.

   ..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 04/08/2014


   ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...

   LAT...LON   29458305 29868259 30428202 30708181 30498149 29868132
               29318164 28878236 28958276 29158307 29458305 

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Page last modified: April 08, 2014
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