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Mesoscale Discussion 318
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0318
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1231 PM CDT TUE APR 08 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MO/AR/NRN LA/MS/SWRN TN

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 081731Z - 082000Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN
   COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS WEAK AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION
   CONTINUES.  HOWEVER...MODEST CAPE AND GENERALLY WEAK SHEAR WILL
   LIMIT CONVECTIVE INTENSITY AND LARGELY MITIGATE APPRECIABLE SEVERE
   RISK.  AS SUCH...WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS COMMENCED ACROSS THE
   OZARKS/MID AND LOWER MS VALLEY REGION AND INTO THE CENTRAL GULF
   COAST STATES.  EXPANSION IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE THIS
   AFTERNOON...AS A COMBINATION OF COLD AIR/STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT
   COMBINE WITH DIURNAL BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING TO YIELD A BROAD AREA OF
   ROUGHLY 500 J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE.  WHILE THIS TYPE OF ENVIRONMENT
   FAVORS LOW-TOPPED CELLS LIKELY TO PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY
   GUSTY WINDS...FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK AS THE UPPER
   TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA.  THIS LACK OF MORE FAVORABLE
   SHEAR -- ALONG WITH LIMITED CAPE -- WILL ACT TO LIMIT STORM
   INTENSITY.  AS A RESULT...HAIL/WIND GUSTS WILL LARGELY REMAIN OF THE
   SUB-SEVERE VARIETY...WHICH SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY NEED FOR WW ISSUANCE.

   ..GOSS/MEAD.. 04/08/2014


   ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...PAH...MEG...JAN...LIX...LZK...SGF...
   LCH...SHV...TSA...

   LAT...LON   37389272 37459156 36369005 34418937 33528841 31618801
               30518887 30459037 31209329 33199420 34809440 36259410
               37389272 

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Page last modified: April 08, 2014
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