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Mesoscale Discussion 318
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0318
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0529 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN NM...WRN TX PANHANDLE/TX S PLAINS...FAR WRN
   OK PANHANDLE...FAR SERN CO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 162229Z - 170000Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED TO THE WEST AND
   SOUTHWEST OF WW 59 WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE. A WW
   IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

   DISCUSSION...HIGH-BASED CONVECTION IS ONGOING WEST OF A DIFFUSE
   DRYLINE LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE/I-25 CORRIDOR.
   MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 250-750 J/KG...STEEP LAPSE RATES...AND A
   RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PROMOTE A FEW ISOLATED WIND GUSTS
   APPROACHING SEVERE LIMITS IN AND NEAR THE STRONGEST STORMS.  LATER
   THIS EVENING...AN INFLUX OF INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR
   FROM THE SOUTHEAST MAY INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE-BASED
   CONVECTION. HOWEVER...NOCTURNAL COOLING MAY MITIGATE THE OVERALL
   SVR-TSTM RISK. A WW IS UNLIKELY THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...ALTHOUGH
   TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

   ..COOK/COHEN/CORFIDI.. 04/16/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...PUB...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   36420361 37080372 37290269 36540206 34970217 33860257
               33280336 33310386 33780417 34900363 36420361 

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