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Mesoscale Discussion 320
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0320
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0401 PM CDT THU APR 10 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN THRU E CNTRL MO...CNTRL/SRN IL...AND ADJACENT
   PORTIONS OF IND...KS...OK

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 102101Z - 102230Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE DURING THE
   22-00Z TIME FRAME.  SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS GENERALLY LOW...BUT
   TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST RAPID REFRESH CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE
   SLOWLY EAST/SOUTHEASTWARD ADVANCING SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME A
   FOCUS FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
   22-00Z TIME FRAME.  DUE TO THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF INHIBITION FOR
   SURFACE BASED PARCELS CHARACTERIZED BY MID 40S DEW POINTS...THIS
   REMAINS UNCERTAIN.  HOWEVER...CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT IS CURRENTLY
   EVIDENT ALONG THE FRONT...AND FRONTAL FORCING COUPLED WITH SUBTLE
   MID-LEVEL COOLING MAY BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME CAPPING.

   IF THIS OCCURS...BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS ARE
   SIZABLE...EVEN TO THE IMMEDIATE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT...WHERE
   STORMS SEEM MOST LIKELY.  ASSOCIATED ENHANCEMENT OF EVAPORATIVE
   COOLING IN DOWNDRAFTS...AND THE DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF 30-40+ KT MEAN
   LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW...COULD CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG SURFACE
   GUSTS THAT MAY LOCALLY APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS.  OTHERWISE ...SOME
   HAIL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY STRONGEST CELLS...BUT PROBABLY WILL
   GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 1 INCH SEVERE CRITERIA.

   ..KERR/MEAD.. 04/10/2014


   ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF...

   LAT...LON   37039457 37659340 38159157 38519046 39498882 39838823
               39658781 38798800 37828944 36799229 36549437 37039457 

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Page last modified: April 10, 2014
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