MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0320
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0909 AM CDT SUN MAR 24 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...GA...FL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 241409Z - 241515Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...A SWATH OF STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE
   MOVING QUICKLY EAST ACROSS NE FL AND SE GA THROUGH THE MORNING.
   OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN QUITE LIMITED IN SPACE AND TIME
   AND THIS WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WATCH.
   
   DISCUSSION...A RELATIVELY ROBUST CORRIDOR OF DEEP CONVECTION
   CONTINUES TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS NRN FL/SE GA COINCIDENT WITH STRONG
   WARM/MOIST CONVEYOR BELT AHEAD AND SOUTH OF WEAK SECONDARY SFC LOW
   OVER SRN GA. DESPITE POTENT DEEP-LAYER FLOW FIELDS...OVERALL STORM
   STRUCTURE DOES NOT APPEAR THAT WELL ORGANIZED AND RECENT IR
   CLOUD-TOP WARNING AND LIGHTNING TRENDS SUGGEST CONVECTION MAY BE
   ENCOUNTERING GREATER INHIBITION /WARMER AIR ALOFT/ AS INDICATED IN
   KJAX MORNING SOUNDING. ONE EXCEPTION IS A LONGER-LIVED AND HIGHER
   REFLECTIVITY CORE/UPDRAFT MOVING ACROSS BAKER COUNTY FL ATTM. THIS
   STORM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE JAX AREA AND ACROSS THE COAST IN THE NEXT
   HOUR WITH SOME CHANCE FOR SMALL HAIL AND PERHAPS LOCALLY STRONG TO
   DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN CELL MOTION AROUND 50KT. ELSEWHERE IN NORTH FL
   AND SRN GA...MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE THRESHOLDS AND
   MOVE OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST BY NOON.
   
   ..CARBIN/HART.. 03/24/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CHS...TBW...JAX...
   
   LAT...LON   32048180 32338115 30748132 29798132 29198235 29258317
               29508283 30868242 32048180