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Mesoscale Discussion 321
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0321
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0236 PM CDT FRI APR 11 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SRN MO...NRN AR AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF
   SWRN KY...NWRN TN

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 111936Z - 112130Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE
   AFTERNOON.  DUE TO THE CONFINED NATURE OF THE SEVERE RISK AREA...
   AND THE MARGINAL NATURE OF THE SEVERE THREAT...THE NEED FOR A WATCH
   IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...RECENT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...NORTH OF THE
   MISSOURI/ARKANSAS BORDER BETWEEN WEST PLAINS AND POPLAR
   BLUFF...APPEARS MOSTLY IN RESPONSE TO FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH WARM
   ADVECTION...BASED NEAR OR JUST BELOW 700 MB.  THE LATEST RAPID
   REFRESH SUGGESTS THAT THIS ZONE LIKELY WILL REMAIN FOCUSED IN THE
   VICINITY OF THE MISSOURI/ARKANSAS BORDER AREA THROUGH THE REST OF
   THE AFTERNOON...ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A WARMER AND MORE STRONGLY
   CAPPING MID-LEVEL AIR MASS.

   DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH CONTINUED SURFACE HEATING AND
   BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING...STRONGER STORMS PROBABLY WILL EVENTUALLY
   BECOME ROOTED IN A MODESTLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER CHARACTERIZED BY
   CAPE OF 500-1000+ J/KG...BENEATH RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES.  ALTHOUGH LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW FIELDS ARE WEAK...DEEP
   LAYER SHEAR BENEATH WESTERLY 500 MB FLOW /STRENGTHENING TO 40+ KTS/
   MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT AT LEAST OCCASIONAL SHORT LIVED
   SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...AS ACTIVITY PROPAGATES EAST SOUTHEASTWARD
   ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS ...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND
   ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH 22-00Z.

   HAIL OCCASIONALLY EXCEEDING 1 INCH IN DIAMETER APPEARS TO BE THE
   PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT...BUT LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY NOT BE OUT
   OF THE QUESTION.

   ..KERR/HART.. 04/11/2014


   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...

   LAT...LON   36849161 36759037 36518914 35848914 35719055 35919129
               36119264 36469290 36849250 36849161 

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Page last modified: April 11, 2014
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