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Mesoscale Discussion 322
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0322
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0714 PM CDT Wed May 02 2018

   Areas affected...Southeast KS...Central/Eastern OK

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 030014Z - 030215Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Wind damage and tornado threat is expected to continue
   downstream of the ongoing Tornado Watches and an additional watch
   will be needed across eastern OK and possibly southeast KS.

   DISCUSSION...Airmass across eastern OK is characterized by
   temperatures in the upper 70s/low 80s with dewpoints in the upper
   60s to low 70s. Surface winds are southeasterly at 10-20 kt with 3
   km winds (from the INX VAD) southwesterly at 30-35 kt. Mid-level
   winds are a bit stronger, reaching 50 kt by 6 km. Low-level flow is
   expected to increase during the next several hours as the low-level
   jet strengthens, lengthening the low-level hodographs and
   strengthening low-level shear. Nocturnal cooling will likely result
   in weak surface-based convective inhibition but steep mid-level
   lapse rates will remain in place, maintaining strong instability. 

   Consequently, this airmass supports continued strong to severe
   storms as the upstream convection moves into the area. Several
   distinct areas of convection are currently upstream with the
   discrete cell near END likely reaching the edge of Tornado Watch 62
   by 01Z. Additionally, convection across south-central KS has
   recently increased its forward speed and will likely reach the edge
   of Tornado Watch 61 around 01Z. Storms farther south across
   south-central OK may have a bit more time before reaching the
   eastern edge of Tornado Watch 62, but an increase in forward speed 
   is anticipated with this activity as well.

   Given the strengthening low-level wind fields and the organized
   nature of the convective lines (one in south-central KS and the
   other over southwest OK) suggests the severe threat will persist
   downstream of Tornado Watches 61 and 62, meriting a new downstream
   watch.

   ..Mosier/Edwards.. 05/03/2018

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...

   LAT...LON   37529648 37809627 38019581 37939502 37549473 35779479
               34569529 34239609 34819687 36669665 37529648 

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Page last modified: May 03, 2018
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