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Mesoscale Discussion 322
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0322
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0444 PM CDT FRI APR 11 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN/MIDDLE TN...MO BOOTHEEL...FAR NWRN
   AR

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 112144Z - 112245Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED DMGG WIND THREAT SHOULD EXTEND INTO PORTIONS OF
   WRN/MIDDLE TN AS A SMALL LINE SEGMENT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. DUE TO
   THE BRIEF TEMPORAL WINDOW AND LOCALIZED NATURE OF THE THREAT...A WW
   DOES NOT APPEAR WARRANTED.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST CONVECTIVE TRENDS SHOW A SMALL BUT ORGANIZED
   LINE SEGMENT AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL IS EVOLVING NEAR THE MO/TN
   BORDER. CURRENT PROPAGATION IS ESTIMATED AT AROUND 25 KT TOWARDS THE
   ESE...WITH THE DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY A DRIER
   BOUNDARY-LAYER /SFC DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-50S F/ AND LESSER
   SFC-BASED INSTABILITY. AMBIENT FLOW IN THE 0-3 KM LAYER ALSO REMAINS
   QUITE WEAK...ESTIMATED AT 15-20 KT PER REGIONAL VWP DATA. 

   DESPITE THESE LIMITATIONS...STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OWING TO
   SUBSTANTIAL DIURNAL HEATING...AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CONVECTIVE
   COLD POOL WILL BE SUPPORTIVE FOR STRONG-SVR WIND GUSTS. HAIL APPEARS
   TO BE A LESSER THREAT GIVEN CONVECTIVE MODE EVOLUTION...BUT THE
   PRESENCE OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY STILL SUPPORT A FEW
   INSTANCES OF SVR HAIL. SVR THREAT MAY EXTEND AS FAR E AS PORTIONS OF
   MIDDLE TN...BUT SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH NEAR SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF
   DIURNAL HEATING.

   ..ROGERS/EDWARDS.. 04/11/2014


   ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...

   LAT...LON   35468799 35548882 35768977 36009032 36219043 36519023
               36668977 36478862 36278787 36058754 35588766 35468799 

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Page last modified: April 11, 2014
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