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Mesoscale Discussion 323
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0323
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0224 AM CDT FRI APR 01 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/S TX.

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 010724Z - 011000Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...WIDELY SCATTERED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED TSTMS MAY PRODUCE
   SPORADIC LARGE HAIL OVER DISCUSSION AREA THRU PRE-DAWN HOURS. 
   THREAT APPEARS TOO MRGL/DISORGANIZED FOR WW.

   DISCUSSION...TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN TWO MAIN/BKN BANDS BETWEEN
   DRT/T82 LINE AND TX COASTAL BEND...WITH OTHER CONVECTIVE INITIATION
   POSSIBLE DURING NEXT FEW HOURS N OF SLOW-MOVING SFC COLD FRONT. 
   ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD NEWD AND WEAKEN WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
   POSSIBLE CLOSER TO SFC FRONT.

   AT 07Z THAT FRONT WAS ANALYZED FROM SRN HOU METRO AREA SWWD TO NEAR
   NOG AND JUST S LRD.  FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRIFT SWD WHILE
   OVERTOPPED BY BROAD...SELY-SSELY...30-40 KT LLJ WRAPPING AROUND E
   RIM OF DEVELOPING 850-MB LOW NEAR DRT.  ELEVATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT
   AND WAA WILL CONTINUE N OF FRONT...SUPPORTING ISENTROPIC ASCENT OF
   PARCELS TO LFC AMIDST STEEP/EML-GENERATED MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. 
   ELEVATED MUCAPE 1000-1500 J/KG IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST JUST N OF SFC
   FRONT...DECREASING NWD TO LESS THAN 500 J/KG OVER HILL COUNTRY...
   AMIDST 50-70 KT EFFECTIVE-SHEAR MAGNITUDES.  THIS WILL SUPPORT
   SPORADIC ORGANIZATION OF CELLS OFFERING POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL. 
   SVR THREAT WILL BE LIMITED BY LACK OF GREATER BUOYANCY...AND BY DRY
   AIR IN LOWER PARTS OF STORM-INFLOW LAYER THAT MAY IMPEDE BOTH
   LIQUID-WATER CONTENT AND UPDRAFT MAINTENANCE MORE THAN INDICATED BY
   MOST-UNSTABLE ELEVATED LIFTED PARCELS ON FCST SOUNDINGS.

   ..EDWARDS.. 04/01/2016


   ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...SJT...

   LAT...LON   29199505 28369630 28159868 28199976 28330024 28960059
               29390087 30310054 31289898 31439793 31319620 30409507
               29389495 29199505 

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Page last modified: April 01, 2016
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