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Mesoscale Discussion 323
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0323
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0708 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE ERN TX PANHANDLE AND FAR WRN OK

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 59...64...

   VALID 170008Z - 170215Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 59...64...CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING TORNADOES
   CONTINUES ACROSS TORNADO WATCHES 59 AND 64.

   DISCUSSION...INTENSE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
   AREA...WITH SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS ADVANCING ACROSS WHEELER COUNTY
   IN THE TX PANHANDLE AND ENTERING ROGER MILLS COUNTY OK FROM HEMPHILL
   COUNTY TX. THESE SUPERCELLS WILL POSE THE GREATEST NEAR-TERM TORNADO
   RISK...ESPECIALLY AS THE NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND MAXIMUM AND
   STRENGTHENING LLJ ENLARGE THE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH CORRESPONDING TO A
   VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILE. SPLITTING STORMS THAT DEVELOPED
   DURING PEAK HEATING AMIDST LOW MLCINH CONTINUE ADVANCING NWD FROM
   SWRN OK AND THE SERN TX PANHANDLE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THIS
   ACTIVITY MAY POSE A TORNADO RISK AS LOW-LEVEL SHEAR STRENGTHENS
   AMIDST LOWERING LCLS/MODEST SFC TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS...IN ADDITION
   TO LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...LATER THIS EVENING...INCREASING STORM
   INTERACTIONS COULD BREED UPSCALE GROWTH INTO ONE OR MORE CONVECTIVE
   SYSTEMS...WITH DMGG WIND GUSTS AND SVR HAIL BECOMING THE PRIMARY SVR
   CONCERNS. A TORNADO RISK WILL STILL EXIST.

   ..COHEN.. 04/17/2015


   ATTN...WFO...OUN...AMA...

   LAT...LON   34790059 35300051 35910002 36489988 36199952 35269940
               34889958 34790059 

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Page last modified: April 17, 2015
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