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Mesoscale Discussion 324
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0324
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0446 AM CDT FRI APR 01 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AL / SWRN AND S-CNTRL GA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 010946Z - 011115Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...CONTINUING TO MONITOR SHORT-TERM TRENDS FOR THE
   POSSIBILITY OF A NEW TORNADO WATCH ACROSS SERN AL EWD INTO S-CNTRL
   GA.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS
   --DEWPOINTS AOA 70 DEG F-- WITH STREAMLINE ANALYSIS INDICATING WINDS
   ARE SOUTHERLY TO THE SOUTH OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AROUND CSG TO MCN.
   THE RELATIVELY BACKED FLOW AT THE SURFACE IS ACTING TO ENLARGE THE
   LOW-LEVEL CURVATURE IN THE HODOGRAPH /REFERENCE KEOX VAD/.  SINCE
   09Z...ECHO TOPS HAVE INCREASED WITH THE CELLULAR CONVECTION WITHIN A
   BROKEN BAND OF STORMS ACROSS S-CNTRL AL.  GIVEN THIS TREND IN RADAR
   IMAGERY...THIS LIKELY IMPLIES UPDRAFT INTENSITY IS INCREASING AND A
   CELLULAR MODE WOULD FAVOR AT LEAST SOME CONCERN FOR SUPERCELL
   MESOCYCLONE DEVELOPMENT.  IF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES EVOLVE OR APPEAR
   IMMINENT...THE MODERATELY HIGH SRH ENVIRONMENT WOULD LIKELY
   ACCENTUATE POTENTIAL FOR A CONDITIONAL SUPERCELL-TORNADO RISK.  IN
   SUMMARY...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO MONITORED EARLY THIS
   MORNING FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL STORM
   ORGANIZATION/STRENGTHENING.

   ..SMITH/EDWARDS.. 04/01/2016


   ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

   LAT...LON   31528670 32278561 32538508 32528386 32048317 31668318
               31318359 31388363 31288670 31528670 

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Page last modified: April 01, 2016
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