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Mesoscale Discussion 325
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0325
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0338 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CNTRL LOWER MICHIGAN

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 122038Z - 122245Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STORMS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BE AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR
   SEVERE HAIL.  HOWEVER...DUE TO THE RELATIVELY CONFINED AND MARGINAL
   NATURE OF THIS THREAT...THE NEED FOR A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY
   ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...A LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC FRONTAL ZONE...ROUGHLY IN THE
   925-700 MB LAYER...REMAINS THE FOCUS FOR VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM
   ACTIVITY AS IT SLOWLY ADVANCES NORTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
   REGION...IN CONJUNCTION WITH A WEAK EASTWARD ADVANCING MID-LEVEL
   PERTURBATION.  STRONGEST DEEP LAYER UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION APPEARS
   LIKELY TO CONTINUE SHIFTING INLAND ACROSS THE COAST...NORTH THROUGH
   EAST OF MUSKEGON...INTO CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS.  

   EVAPORATIVE COOLING OF DOWNSTREAM PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO INHIBIT
   BOUNDARY LAYER MODIFICATION/DESTABILIZATION OVER MUCH OF INTERIOR
   CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN.  HOWEVER...SHEAR WITHIN THE ELEVATED STORM
   INFLOW LAYER APPEARS TO REMAIN RATHER STRONG...AND IT MAY NOT BE OUT
   OF THE QUESTION THAT THIS COULD CONTINUE TO ENHANCE HAIL POTENTIAL
   AS MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES GRADUALLY STEEPEN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. 
   LARGEST HAIL SIZES...THOUGH...STILL SEEM LIKELY TO ONLY
   OCCASIONALLY/BRIEFLY EXCEED SEVERE LIMITS.

   ..KERR/HART.. 04/12/2014


   ATTN...WFO...DTX...GRR...

   LAT...LON   43818655 43918573 43598442 43068322 42798404 42968534
               43218641 43818655 

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Page last modified: April 12, 2014
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