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Mesoscale Discussion 325
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0325
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1040 AM CDT FRI APR 01 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...SE AL...SRN AND CNTRL GA...SRN AND CNTRL SC

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 74...

   VALID 011540Z - 011745Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 74 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL
   MORE HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF WW 74. A TORNADO OR TWO ALONG WITH WIND
   DAMAGE WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD
   FROM THE SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS INTO CNTRL GULF COAST STATES WITH A
   MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SFC DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE
   WARM SECTOR ARE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S F. SFC
   TEMPS HAVE WARMED THIS MORNING AHEAD OF PARTS OF THE FRONT...MOST
   NOTABLY IN SRN GA WHERE TEMPS HAVE REACHED THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S
   F. THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO INCREASED INSTABILITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
   WATCH. IN ADDITION...MODERATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS PRESENT ACROSS
   MUCH OF THE SERN U.S. THE WSR-88D VWP AT CHARLESTON SC SHOWS 45-50
   KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR WITH SOME VEERING OF THE WINDS WITH HEIGHT IN THE
   LOW TO MID-LEVELS. THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO 0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE
   HELICITIES IN THE 300-350 M2/S2 RANGE. THE WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT
   WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR TORNADOES LATE
   THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY IN THE ERN PART OF
   WW 74 WHERE A MAX IN LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS ANALYZED. CONVECTION IS
   FORECAST TO EXPAND ACROSS THE SWRN AND CNTRL PART OF WW 74 AS AN MCS
   MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS ACTIVITY MAY CONTAIN A WIND DAMAGE
   THREAT ESPECIALLY IF LINE SEGMENTS CAN ORGANIZE ALONG THE LEADING
   EDGE OF THE MCS.

   ..BROYLES.. 04/01/2016


   ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

   LAT...LON   31038384 30918521 30968624 31658618 32208544 33318336
               33938126 33937988 32927948 31558139 31038384 

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Page last modified: April 01, 2016
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