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Mesoscale Discussion 325
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0325
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0744 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO/SWRN KS/WRN OK AND NWRN TX PANHANDLES

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 170044Z - 170145Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR SERN CO INTO SWRN KS
   AND SWD THROUGH THE WRN OK AND NWRN TX PANHANDLES.  STRONG TO SEVERE
   STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING WITH ALL SEVERE HAZARDS
   POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
   ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA AS DPVA ATTENDANT TO A MIDLEVEL
   IMPULSE/JET STREAK ROUNDS THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE FOUR CORNER
   CLOSED LOW.   A STRENGTHENING E/SELY LOW-LEVEL JET INTO THIS REGION
   WILL AID IN MAINTAINING AN INFLUX OF MODERATE INSTABILITY IN
   VICINITY OF A NNE-SSW ORIENTED SURFACE BOUNDARY.  THIS BOUNDARY
   EXTENDED FROM WEST CENTRAL KS THROUGH FAR SERN CO INTO FAR WRN PARTS
   OF THE WRN OK/NWRN TX PANHANDLES.  EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IS EXPECTED
   TO REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY STRONG /EXCEEDING 40-50 KT/ FOR
   SUSTAINED/ROTATING UPDRAFTS.  COOLER MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES SPREADING
   INTO NERN NM AND NWRN TX/WRN OK PANHANDLES INTO SERN CO/SWRN KS THIS
   EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT WILL STEEPEN MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
   FOR A CONTINUED HAIL THREAT.  IN ADDITION TO A HAIL AND DAMAGING
   WIND POTENTIAL...A TORNADO THREAT CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE
   INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ALONG THE STRENGTHENING E/SELY LOW-LEVEL
   WINDS.

   ..PETERS/CORFIDI.. 04/17/2015


   ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...

   LAT...LON   38020087 36860107 36060140 35850256 36530278 37810302
               38440281 38780229 38840172 38720135 38540104 38020087 

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Page last modified: April 17, 2015
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