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Mesoscale Discussion 326
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0326
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0446 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CNTRL/ERN KS...NWRN MO...SERN NEB...SWRN
   IA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 122146Z - 122245Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WIND GUSTS APPEARS
   TO BE INCREASING ACROSS CNTRL KS...EVENTUALLY EXTENDING NEWD INTO
   THE MID-MO VALLEY. CONVECTIVE TRENDS CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...AND
   A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY.

   DISCUSSION...SUBSTANTIAL BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING /TEMPERATURES UPPER
   80S TO LOWER 90S F/ HAS OCCURRED ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS. RAP
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS FIELDS SUGGEST CINH HAS
   NEARLY ERODED WITHIN A THERMAL AXIS JUXTAPOSED NEAR/W OF A
   DRYLINE...WHICH WAS ANALYZED FROM 20 W SLN SSWWD TO 20 W P28 AS OF
   21Z. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS HIGH-BASED CU FIELD
   INCREASING SW OF PTT...AND A WEAK VORT MAX MOVING ACROSS N-CNTRL KS
   INFERRED FROM CIRRUS FIELD. TRENDS SUGGEST CONVECTIVE INITIATION
   COULD OCCUR ACROSS THIS AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS.

   DESPITE ONLY MODESTLY STRONG MIDLEVEL FLOW /ESTIMATED NEAR 30 KT AT
   5 KM AGL/...VEERING VERTICAL WIND PROFILES ARE YIELDING EFFECTIVE
   SHEAR VALUES OF 30-40 KT...MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELL
   PRODUCTION. LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BE THE PRIMARY
   THREATS WITH ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP...GIVEN OBSERVED LARGE SFC
   T-TD SPREADS OF 30-40 F AND MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2500 J/KG IN THE
   PRESENCE OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. AREAL COVERAGE STILL REMAINS
   UNCERTAIN AS INITIATION APPEARS TO BE PREDICATED ON LOW-LEVEL
   CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE AND SUBTLE FORCING FOR ASCENT ALOFT.
   HOWEVER...IF TRENDS INCREASE...A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS
   PARTS OF CNTRL/ERN KS NEWD INTO SWRN IA.

   ..ROGERS/EDWARDS.. 04/12/2014


   ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...

   LAT...LON   40089392 39079470 37979564 37569691 37459783 37649829
               38439812 39189802 39889808 40539758 40919693 41469603
               41519499 41129395 40089392 

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Page last modified: April 12, 2014
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