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Mesoscale Discussion 328
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0328
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0917 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL KS AND NRN/WRN OK

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 61...63...

   VALID 170217Z - 170345Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
   61...63...CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...ASIDE FROM A SMALL PORTION OF SOUTH-CENTRAL KS
   /HARPER...SUMNER AND SRN SEDGWICK COUNTIES/...THE REST OF WW 61 HAS
   BEEN CONVECTIVELY OVERTURNED WITH A DIMINISHED SEVERE WEATHER
   THREAT.  ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THE LATE
   EVENING ACROSS WRN AND NRN OK WITHIN WW 63...WITH THE GREATEST
   SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40.

   DISCUSSION...MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY AND MID-EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS
   SHOWED THE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...ATTENDANT TO THE EARLIER
   CLUSTER OF STORMS IN SRN/CENTRAL KS...EXTENDED SWWD FROM CHASE
   COUNTY KS THROUGH BUTLER COUNTY TO NRN SUMNER COUNTY KS...AND THEN
   INTO OK /ALFALFA COUNTY/ TO SRN WOODS COUNTY.  850-MB WIND ANALYSIS
   PER SOUTHERN PLAINS WSR-88D VADS INDICATED A CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL
   CONFLUENCE BEING MAXIMIZED ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL THROUGH NWRN OK INTO
   FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL KS.  THIS COMBINED WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL
   WAA...RESIDUAL MODERATE INSTABILITY AND THE ERN PERIPHERY OF
   SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR FOR FURTHER STORM ORGANIZATION
   SUGGEST A FEW ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
   LATE EVENING.  HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY
   THREATS...THOUGH A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
   OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHERE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS LOCALLY STRONGER.

   ..PETERS.. 04/17/2015


   ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...

   LAT...LON   36699930 36949905 37229823 37429782 37599721 37239709
               36799742 36279749 36179807 35619827 34909808 34919861
               35169890 35199931 35739930 36269935 36489934 36699930 

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Page last modified: April 17, 2015
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