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Mesoscale Discussion 328
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0328
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0100 PM CDT FRI APR 01 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...SE AL...SRN GA AND SRN SC

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 74...

   VALID 011800Z - 011900Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 74 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS
   AFTERNOON ACROSS SRN GA AND SRN SC WHERE WIND DAMAGE AND A BRIEF
   TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE. NEW WW ISSUANCE MAY BE NEEDED ALONG AND TO
   THE SOUTH OF THE SRN EDGE OF THE CURRENT WATCH.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST MESOSCALE ANALYSIS DATA SHOWS AN AXIS OF
   INSTABILITY FROM THE FL PANHANDLE EXTENDING NEWD INTO SRN SC...ALONG
   WHICH MLCAPE VALUES ARE ESTIMATED IN THE 1200 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE. AN
   MCS IS ONGOING NEAR A COLD FRONT FROM SCNTRL GA WSWWD INTO SRN LA
   ALONG THE NRN GRADIENT OF INSTABILITY. SHORT-TERM MODEL FORECASTS
   MAINTAIN THE LINE OF STORMS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MCS AND
   MOVE THE LINE ESEWD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SRN GA THIS AFTERNOON.
   THE MODERATE INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH 60 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR EVIDENT
   ON THE VAX WSR-88D VWP SHOULD SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS. BOWING LINE
   SEGMENTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCS MAY CONTAIN A WIND DAMAGE THREAT.
   ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS NOT THAT STRONG...A BRIEF TORNADO CAN
   NOT BE RULED OUT WITH ANY CELLS THAT SHOW SIGNS OF ROTATION.

   ..BROYLES/HART.. 04/01/2016


   ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...

   LAT...LON   31188144 30918319 30788461 30918557 31578535 32708306
               33398092 33018000 32448009 31188144 

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