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Mesoscale Discussion 329
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0329
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1020 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN OK INCLUDING PARTS OF THE OK
   PANHANDLE...WEST TEXAS INCLUDING PARTS OF THE TX PANHANDLE...FAR
   SERN NM

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 170320Z - 170545Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...PARTS OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS AND VICINITY ARE BEING
   MONITORED FOR A NOCTURNAL INCREASE IN THE SVR-TSTM POTENTIAL...AND
   THIS MAY REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF A NEW WW.

   DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IMPLIES LARGE-SCALE ASCENT BEING
   MAINTAINED ON THE SERN QUADRANT OF A CLOSED CYCLONE CENTERED ON THE
   FOUR CORNERS REGION. WITH CONVECTIVELY PROCESSED/MODESTLY MOIST AIR
   /SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S/ SPREADING WWD ACROSS PARTS OF W
   TX INTO THE ERN FRINGES OF STRONGER DEEP ASCENT...AND WITH POLEWARD
   MASS FLUXES ALONG A LLJ ENCOURAGING THE NWD ADVANCE OF A BOUNDARY
   ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE...PRIMARILY ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL
   CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE
   OVERNIGHT HOURS. RADAR CAPPI AT 9 KM HIGHLIGHTS THIS TREND...AND
   ROBUST UPDRAFTS SUBJECTED TO 30-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR MAY BE
   SUSTAINED/ROTATE WITH SVR HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY CONCERN. LATER
   TONIGHT...THIS ACTIVITY MAY TEND TO SPREAD EWD INTO THE
   MOISTER/UNSTABLE AIR INTO WRN OK AND VICINITY WHERE EARLIER
   CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING STABILIZED THE BOUNDARY LAYER. REGARDLESS...A
   REPLENISHMENT OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT SOME SVR
   RISK THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...POTENTIALLY WARRANTING WW ISSUANCE
   IF CONFIDENCE WERE TO GROW IN GREATER COVERAGE OF INTENSE UPDRAFTS.
   A NEW WW WOULD EFFECTIVELY REPLACE ANY EXISTING WWS.

   ..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 04/17/2015


   ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...MAF...

   LAT...LON   32260340 32860343 34850226 36790114 36589923 34419989
               32390160 31950289 32260340 

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Page last modified: April 17, 2015
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