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Mesoscale Discussion 330
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0330
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0635 PM CDT FRI APR 01 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN PANHANDLE/NRN FL

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 75...

   VALID 012335Z - 020100Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 75 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...WHILE THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIMITED IN THE
   NEAR-TERM...SOME INCREASE IN DAMAGING WIND/BRIEF TORNADO POTENTIAL
   MAY OCCUR AFTER SCHEDULED 01Z EXPIRATION OF WW 75. MONITORING FOR A
   POSSIBLE REPLACEMENT OR ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE AFTER 01Z.

   DISCUSSION...LARGE-SCALE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW HAS SLOWED ITS SWD
   PROGRESSION ACROSS GULF TO TAYLOR TO BAKER COUNTIES. UPSTREAM
   /PREDOMINANTLY ELEVATED/ CONVECTION IS PRESENT ACROSS THE WRN
   PANHANDLE...WITH AN EVEN LARGER CLUSTER NEAR MOBILE BAY. THIS
   ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE TIED TO A MINOR MID-LEVEL IMPULSE EVIDENT IN
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. MOST SHORT-TERM MODEL PROGS DEPICT
   STRENGTHENING LOW/MID-LEVEL WINDS DOWNSTREAM OF THIS IMPULSE. NORTH
   OF THE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW...MOIST-ADIABATIC TO NEAR-NEUTRAL
   LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD MITIGATE AN APPRECIABLE SEVERE RISK.
   BUT ALONG AND TO ITS SOUTH...A WARM SECTOR CHARACTERIZED BY LOWER
   70S SURFACE DEW POINTS COULD SUPPORT /ALBEIT SPATIALLY LIMITED/ A
   RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND A BRIEF TORNADO LATER THIS EVENING.

   ..GRAMS/CORFIDI.. 04/01/2016


   ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...

   LAT...LON   29998559 30458444 30608319 30638281 30418253 30158255
               29908276 29778334 29648531 29998559 

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