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Mesoscale Discussion 331
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0331
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0110 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...WEST TX/TX SOUTH PLAINS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 170610Z - 170745Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED INSTANCES OF SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE
   OVERNIGHT AS STORMS SPREAD EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS FAR WEST TX/TX
   SOUTH PLAINS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE RELATIVELY
   MARGINAL/ISOLATED NATURE OF THE HAIL RISK WILL PRECLUDE A WATCH
   ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...STORMS HAVE INCREASED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN TX
   PANHANDLE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD INTO WEST TX/TX SOUTH PLAINS INCLUDING
   AREAS NEAR/NORTHEAST OF LUBBOCK...WITH ADDITIONAL/MORE ISOLATED
   STORM DEVELOPMENT ALSO NOTED FARTHER SOUTHWEST NEAR THE TX/NM BORDER
   EAST OF HOBBS NM. WITH A SURFACE LOW NOTED JUST W/NW OF
   MIDLAND...THESE STORMS ARE OCCURRING IMMEDIATELY BEHIND AN
   OUTFLOW-INFLUENCED EASTWARD-SHIFTING BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS
   NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE. BOUNDARY-RELATED UPLIFT
   ASIDE...THE RECENT UPSWING IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY BE ENHANCED
   BY A SUBTLE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH/MID-LEVEL SPEED MAXIMUM ON THE
   EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE FOUR CORNERS AREA-CENTERED UPPER LOW AS PER
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/REGIONAL WSR-88D VWP DATA. THIS SPEED MAXIMUM
   MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING OF DEEP-LAYER WIND
   SHEAR...WITH REGIONAL VWP DATA CONSISTENT WITH AROUND 35-40 KT OF
   EFFECTIVE SHEAR. REGARDLESS...EVEN WHILE THE BOUNDARY LAYER
   CONTINUES TO COOL...RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES/MODERATE
   ELEVATED BUOYANCY...AS PER 00Z SOUNDING DATA FROM MIDLAND...WILL
   SUPPORT ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL POTENTIAL THROUGH THE EARLY/MIDDLE PART
   OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

   ..GUYER/EDWARDS.. 04/17/2015


   ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

   LAT...LON   34640017 33609975 32140134 32850298 34070149 34640017 

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Page last modified: April 17, 2015
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