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Mesoscale Discussion 332
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0332
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0119 AM CDT SAT APR 02 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...FL BIG BEND AND PARTS OF N FL

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 76...

   VALID 020619Z - 020715Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 76 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE REMAINING STRONG TO PERHAPS LOW-SEVERE RISK IS
   GREATEST IN THE IMMEDIATE FL BIG BEND VICINITY THROUGH TORNADO WATCH
   76 EXPIRATION TIME OF 08Z.  WHILE IT APPEARS UNLIKELY AN ADDITIONAL
   WATCH WILL BE NEEDED...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED OVER THE
   NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND WILL LIKELY DICTATE WHETHER A NEW WATCH WILL
   BE NEEDED LATER TONIGHT.

   DISCUSSION...RADAR IMAGERY OVER THE PAST HOUR HAS SHOWN A
   SWD-SAGGING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER THE FL BIG BEND WITH A STRONGER
   UPDRAFT INTERSECTING THE BOUNDARY OVER APALACHEE BAY.  WEAK ROTATION
   WAS OBSERVED FROM KTLH WITH THIS STORM WHEREAS THE REMAINING PORTION
   OF THE LARGER-SCALE MCS EXTENDING FROM THE FL BIG BEND NEWD INTO
   SERN GA EXHIBITS A COLD-POOL DOMINATED PARALLEL-STRATIFORM
   CHARACTER.  EXPECTING LITTLE FLUCTUATION IN SURFACE TEMP/DEWPOINTS
   TONIGHT AS CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY HOLD FROM THE 68-72 RANGE N OF
   THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND MID 70S DEG F TEMPS S OF THE BOUNDARY.  AS
   A RESULT...CONDITIONS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN MARGINAL BUT
   NOT PROHIBITIVE OF STRONGER WINDS PERHAPS REACHING THE SURFACE FROM
   ANY MODESTLY-ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE /I.E. TRANSIENT ROTATION
   OR BOWING SEGMENT/.  NONETHELESS...STRONG WIND FIELDS COUPLED WITH A
   MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SUPPORT THE CONTINUATION OF A
   LOW-CONDITIONAL RISK FOR STRONG TO PERHAPS DAMAGING GUSTS.

   ..SMITH.. 04/02/2016


   ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...TAE...

   LAT...LON   29898436 30168280 29568271 29438367 29898436 

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Page last modified: April 02, 2016
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