MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0333
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0618 PM CDT FRI MAR 29 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN KS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 292318Z - 300015Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL
   APPROACHING SEVERE LEVELS WILL EXIST WITH DEVELOPING TSTMS.  A WW IS
   NOT ANTICIPATED.
   
   DISCUSSION...AS OF 23Z...REGIONAL RADAR DATA INDICATED A CLUSTER OF
   DEVELOPING TSTMS OVER WALLACE AND GREELEY COUNTIES IN KS INTO FAR
   NERN PROWERS COUNTY CO.  THIS ACTIVITY IS FORMING ALONG A LEE TROUGH
   SITUATED NEAR THE CO-KS BORDER WITHIN A THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT
   CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP LOW TO MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH MLCAPE OF
   500-700 J/KG.  MOREOVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT FORCING
   FOR ASCENT/DCVA ATTENDANT TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF
   THE CNTRL ROCKIES MAY BE FURTHER ENCOURAGING THESE STORMS.
   
   THE PRESENCE OF THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND COOL THERMODYNAMIC
   PROFILES MAY PROMOTE SOME HAIL IN THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS...AND
   FAIRLY SIZABLE T-TD SPREADS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE SUPPORTIVE
   OF LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.  EXPECT THESE STORMS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN BY
   MID TO LATE EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO COOL AND
   STABILIZE.
   
   ..MEAD/GUYER.. 03/29/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...
   
   LAT...LON   38830186 39230182 38930095 38500024 37740034 37420086
               37610170 38070197 38830186