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Mesoscale Discussion 333
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0333
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0318 AM CDT SAT APR 02 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...N FL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 020818Z - 021015Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE NEED FOR AN ADDITIONAL WATCH IS NOT CERTAIN BUT A
   CONDITIONALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS AND
   PERHAPS A WEAK/BRIEF MESOVORTEX TORNADO WILL REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL
   THE CONVECTIVE LINE PASSES THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST.

   DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC DURING THE 0730-0800Z TIMEFRAME SHOWS AN
   INTENSIFYING QLCS OVER THE NERN GULF.  A NWD RETREAT OF REFLECTIVITY
   W OF JAX IMPLIES A LIKELY CONCURRENT INFLUX OF MODESTLY MORE BUOYANT
   AIR FROM THE S AS THE EARLIER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BECOMES MORE NEBULOUS
   WITH TIME ACROSS N FL.  THE KJAX WIND PROFILE FEATURES STRONG LOW-
   TO MID-LEVEL TROPOSPHERIC FLOW AND WILL CONDITIONALLY SUPPORT A
   THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS WITH ANY STRONGER CORES AND/OR BOWING
   SEGMENTS AS THE QLCS MAKES LANDFALL ON THE FL BIG BEND COAST AND
   AREAS SWD ALONG THE W COAST.  THE CONVECTIVE LINE WILL LIKELY MOVE
   ACROSS N FL DURING THE PRE-DAWN AND EARLY MORNING HOURS POSING
   MAINLY A LOCALIZED DAMAGING-WIND THREAT.  HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
   BACKGROUND ENVIRONMENTAL WIND FIELDS...THE DEVELOPMENT OF
   MESOVORTICES ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE LINE WITH ACCOMPANYING POTENTIAL
   FOR WIND DAMAGE AND PERHAPS A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO.

   ..SMITH/EDWARDS.. 04/02/2016


   ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...

   LAT...LON   30108366 30498197 30228125 28878079 28518272 30108366 

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Page last modified: April 02, 2016
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