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Mesoscale Discussion 333
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0333
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1110 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS AND ADJACENT AREAS OF WRN MO/NRN OK

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 131610Z - 131845Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING
   SUPERCELLS...APPEARS LIKELY TO INCREASE BY MID AFTERNOON...PROBABLY
   REQUIRING A WATCH BY AROUND 17-18Z.

   DISCUSSION...ONE SIGNIFICANT SURFACE FRONTAL WAVE...NOW NORTHEAST OF
   MEDICINE LODGE...APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TRACKING TOWARD THE
   FALLS CITY NEB/ST. JOSEPH MO AREA THROUGH 18-20Z.  THIS IS EXPECTED
   TO OCCUR AS AN INITIAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH...PROGRESSING EAST OF THE
   ROCKIES... GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST NORTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
   HIGH PLAINS.  

   THE LATEST RAPID REFRESH AND HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH...AMONG A
   CONSENSUS OF OTHER MODEL DATA...ARE SUGGESTIVE THAT ASSOCIATED
   FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE INITIATION
   OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AROUND 18-19Z. 
   THIS PROBABLY WILL OCCUR BOTH ALONG THE WARM FRONT TO THE NORTHEAST
   OF THE LOW...NEAR/NORTHEAST OF SALINA THROUGH THE MANHATTAN/TOPEKA
   AREA...AS WELL AS ALONG THE DRYLINE TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW....TO
   THE NORTH AND EAST OF WICHITA INTO THE EMPORIA/CHANUTE AREAS.

   GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WHICH ARE
   SUPPORTING SIZABLE WARM SECTOR CAPE...DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROBABLY WILL
   BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH AT LEAST A RISK FOR SEVERE
   HAIL...EVEN WITH ACTIVITY FORMING TO THE IMMEDIATE COOL SIDE OF THE
   WARM FRONT.  WITH THE STRONGER 500 MB JET REMAINING WELL TO THE
   SOUTH OF THE REGION...THE RELATIVE WEAKNESS OF THE MID-LEVEL FLOW
   PROVIDES SOME UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING THE EXTENT OF THE TORNADO
   POTENTIAL.  HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AHEAD OF THE
   DRYLINE...ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LARGE
   AND CLOCKWISE CURVED...PROVIDING THE BEST CHANCE FOR AT LEAST A
   COUPLE OF SHORT-LIVED TORNADOES.

   ..KERR/HART.. 04/13/2014


   ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...

   LAT...LON   39229693 39989533 39229466 37399506 36879654 37349700
               38349753 39229693 

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Page last modified: April 13, 2014
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