MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0335
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0924 PM CDT FRI MAR 29 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NW/N-CNTRL TX...SRN OK
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 300224Z - 300400Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...SOME UPSCALE GROWTH IN CONVECTION HAS BEEN NOTED ACROSS NW
   TX NEAR THE RED RIVER. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...NEW WW ISSUANCE
   WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA AS THE STORM COMPLEX BEGINS TO MOVE
   OUT OF WW 64.
   
   DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF STORMS ACROSS NW TX NEAR THE RED RIVER HAS
   SHOWN A RECENT UPTICK IN ORGANIZATION AND INTENSITY. AN INCREASING
   LOWLEVEL JET /30-35 KTS AT 1 KM IN RECENT FWD VAD DATA/ WILL LIKELY
   HELP TO SUSTAIN THIS ACTIVITY FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING. MODERATE
   INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A LARGE HAIL THREAT...BUT WITH
   INCREASINGLY LINEAR MODE AND ACCELERATING FORWARD SPEED...AN
   INCREASE IN SEVERE WIND THREAT IS ALSO POSSIBLE. THE MAIN
   UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME IS THE COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER AND
   INCREASING CAP STRENGTH...WHICH WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE
   FOR MAINTENANCE OF NEAR-SFC BASED STORMS AND SEVERE WIND. 
   
   MEANWHILE...A LONG-LIVED SUPERCELL IN CLAY COUNTY TX CONTINUES TO BE
   A SEVERE HAIL THREAT. IF THIS STORM IS ABLE TO PERSIST...IT MAY
   EVENTUALLY BE ABSORBED BY FASTER-MOVING CLUSTER TO THE WEST. WW 64
   HAS BEEN LOCALLY EXTENDED INTO JEFFERSON AND LOVE COUNTY OK TO COVER
   THE SHORT-TERM RISK FROM THIS STORM. 
   
   IF THE CURRENT TREND CONTINUES AND CONVECTION NEAR THE RED RIVER
   CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED...NEW WW ISSUANCE WILL BE
   POSSIBLE BETWEEN 03-04Z.
   
   ..DEAN/GUYER.. 03/30/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...
   
   LAT...LON   33199979 33679985 34219984 34489963 34619882 34649785
               34579720 34519648 34409598 34149568 33759542 33149539
               32949587 32979634 32999700 32979771 32969839 33019890
               33199979