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Mesoscale Discussion 335
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0335
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1055 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CNTRL AND NRN TEXAS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 171555Z - 171800Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...OCCASIONAL SEVERE HAIL IS POSSIBLE IN STRONGEST STORMS
   INTO MIDDAY.  A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED IN THE NEAR
   TERM...BUT ONE MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

   DISCUSSION...AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOW WELL
   UNDERWAY WITHIN A PRE-DRYLINE CORRIDOR OF
   INSTABILITY...CHARACTERIZED BY MODESTLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
   AND MIXED LAYER CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1500+ J/KG...NORTH OF THE
   EDWARDS PLATEAU INTO THE VICINITY OF A STALLING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
   OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS.  FORCING ON THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF
   THE FOUR CORNERS CLOSED LOW MAY BE SUPPORTING THIS
   DEVELOPMENT...WHICH COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY THE RISK FOR OCCASIONAL
   SEVERE HAIL INTO THE MIDDAY HOURS.

   EAST OF THE DRY LINE...AND SOUTH OF THE OUTFLOW NEAR THE RED
   RIVER...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS RATHER MODEST.  WEST SOUTHWESTERLY 25-35
   KT DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW COULD EVENTUALLY CONTRIBUTE TO AN EASTWARD
   PROPAGATION TOWARD THE I-35 CORRIDOR OF CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL
   TEXAS...BUT THIS WILL BE COUNTERED BY AT LEAST INITIALLY STRONGER
   INHIBITION STILL PRESENT WITH EASTWARD EXTENT ACROSS THE
   REGION...WHICH MAY NOT WEAKEN APPRECIABLY UNTIL LATER THIS
   AFTERNOON.

   ..KERR/HART.. 04/17/2015


   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

   LAT...LON   31300096 33020050 33590011 33789943 33079799 31479893
               31149992 31300096 

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Page last modified: April 17, 2015
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