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Mesoscale Discussion 336
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0336
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1258 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...NE CO INTO NW KS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 171758Z - 171930Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE SEVERE THREAT MAY BE INCREASING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
   ACROSS NE CO INTO NW KS. WHILE INITIAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAINLY
   POSE A HAIL THREAT...STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON
   INTO THIS EVENING. HAIL...STRONG WINDS AND A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE
   POSSIBLE THE STRONGEST OF THESE STORMS. THE AREA WILL BE MONITORED
   FOR A WEATHER WATCH OVER THE NEXT FEW.

   DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING ALONG LOW
   LEVEL CONFLUENCE BANDS IN THE VICINITY OF THE SFC LOW OVER CENTRAL
   CO. WHILE THE AIRMASS IS ONLY MODESTLY UNSTABLE /17Z MESOANALYSIS
   INDICATES LESS THAN 1000 J PER KG MUCAPE/...MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
   STEEP /AROUND 7.5 DEG C PER KM/ AND WILL SUPPORT AN INITIAL HAIL
   THREAT WITH THESE EARLY THUNDERSTORMS. AS SCATTERED TO BROKEN
   CLOUDINESS ALLOWS FOR ADDITIONAL HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION DURING
   THE AFTERNOON...MORE ORGANIZED SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURES WILL BECOME
   POSSIBLE WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR NEAR 30 KT...STEEP LOW TO MIDLEVEL
   LAPSE RATES AND VERTICALLY VEERING /ALBEIT WEAKLY/ WIND PROFILES.
   THIS MAY RESULT IN AN INCREASING WEAK/BRIEF TORNADO THREAT GIVEN THE
   BACKED LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES IN THE VICINITY OF THE TRIPLE POINT.
   THIS AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WATCH ISSUANCE WITHIN THE
   NEXT FEW HOURS.

   ..LEITMAN/HART.. 04/17/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...

   LAT...LON   40430423 40700399 40920346 40810263 40510195 39930112
               39460092 39170088 38830105 38670129 38580165 38720238
               39000303 39370389 39760443 40340430 40430423 

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Page last modified: April 17, 2015
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