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Mesoscale Discussion 336
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0336
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0127 PM CDT TUE APR 05 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST COLORADO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 051827Z - 052100Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A FEW CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY
   19Z AND SLOWLY INCREASE IN INTENSITY IN THE FOLLOWING FEW HOURS.  A
   FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND
   MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. COVERAGE OF SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BE
   WELL BELOW WATCH CRITERIA.

   DISCUSSION...STRONG HEATING HAS GENERATED VERY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES IN THE NEAR AND POST-COLD FRONTAL AIR MASS OVER THE MCD AREA.
   ALTHOUGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S
   THE STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...COMBINED WITH STEEPING MID-LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES WITH THE 700-500 MB FRONT NOW SPREADING OVER THE
   AREA...IS CONTRIBUTING TO ENOUGH CAPE /100-250 J/KG/ TO SUPPORT
   STORMS THAT CAN INITIATE EITHER ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE COLD
   FRONT. NORTHERLY BOUNDARY-LAYER WINDS COMBINED WITH STRENGTHENING
   MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES ARE GENERATING A LONG HODOGRAPH SUPPORTIVE OF
   ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND TRANSIENT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AND A THREAT
   FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
   THE MCD AREA. ALTHOUGH STORMS WILL BE FEW IN NUMBER...AS DEPICTED IN
   RECENT CONVECTION-ALLOWING GUIDANCE...DOWNDRAFTS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY
   STORMS POSE THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS IN THE DEEP INVERTED-V
   PROFILES. HOWEVER...COVERAGE OF SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
   WELL BELOW WATCH CRITERIA AND A WATCH WILL LIKELY NOT BE NEEDED.

   ..CONIGLIO/HART.. 04/05/2016


   ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...

   LAT...LON   38990424 39160447 39320464 39570482 39800482 40090470
               40300446 40500424 40760375 40780330 40610279 40180225
               39610211 39140212 38760228 38680283 38780360 38990424 

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Page last modified: April 05, 2016
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