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Mesoscale Discussion 336
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0336
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0143 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...W CNTRL TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 131843Z - 132045Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AT LEAST ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT IS
   POSSIBLE THROUGH 21-22Z.  UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WHETHER THE
   SEVERE THREAT WILL REQUIRE A WATCH...AT LEAST IN THE NEAR TERM.

   DISCUSSION...DEEPENING CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN EVIDENT ALONG
   THE DRYLINE...WEST OF WICHITA FALLS...ABILENE AND SAN
   ANGELO...DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.  SOME MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
   SUGGEST THAT THIS COULD LEAD TO VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
   DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  HOWEVER...THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER EAST
   OF THE DRYLINE ACROSS THIS REGION APPEARS RELATIVELY SHALLOW...AS
   REFLECTED BY APPARENT 100 MB MIXED LAYER CAPE ONLY ON THE ORDER OF
   500 J/KG IN MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS/OBJECTIVE ANALYSES...AS
   COMPARED TO CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG FOR SURFACE BASED PARCELS.

   DESPITE CURRENT TRENDS...THE DEVELOPMENT AND SUSTENANCE OF VIGOROUS
   DEEP CONVECTION THROUGH 21-22Z REMAINS UNCLEAR.  A BRIEF/ISOLATED
   THUNDERSTORM OR TWO MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION.  IF THIS
   OCCURS...SEVERE HAIL/LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. 
   HOWEVER...SUSTAINED STRONG/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SEEMS
   MORE PROBABLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...AS THE DRYLINE
   MIXES EASTWARD INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR... WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER
   MOISTURE IS RICHER.

   ..KERR/HART.. 04/13/2014


   ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...

   LAT...LON   32299975 33059908 33399852 32999785 31729867 30740041
               30890103 32299975 

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Page last modified: April 13, 2014
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