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Mesoscale Discussion 337
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0337
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0607 PM CDT TUE APR 05 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL INTO NERN KS...NWRN MO AND SERN NEB...SWRN IA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 052307Z - 060130Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS ALONG WITH MAINLY SMALL HAIL
   ARE POSSIBLE THIS LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING FROM CNTRL KS
   INTO NWRN MO/SERN NEB AND SWRN IA.

   DISCUSSION...SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER SWRN KS...WITH A
   PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS CNTRL INTO NERN KS. THIS
   TROUGH IS ALSO COINCIDENT WITH THE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATE AXIS WHERE
   TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID 80S. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT
   WAS SURGING SWD ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...AND WILL ALSO BE
   DEVELOPING ACROSS NRN KS/SRN NEB LATER TODAY.

   STRONG SLY SFC WINDS WERE ALREADY PRESENT AT 23Z BENEATH WHAT WILL
   BECOME AN EVEN STRONGER LOW-LEVEL JET THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO
   THE CNTRL PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH. MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED WITH
   MEAN BL DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S F WITHIN THE MOIST AXIS OVER ERN
   KS...BUT STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES
   SFC AND ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR A BAND OF HIGH-BASED STORMS TO
   DEVELOP NEAR THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. SUPERCELL WIND PROFILES DO
   EXIST...AND THIS MAY ALLOW A FEW STORM CORES TO PRODUCE MARGINAL
   HAIL ESPECIALLY N OF THE COLD FRONT. THE MAIN THREAT MAY BE LOCALLY
   SEVERE WIND GUSTS AS DOWNDRAFTS DEVELOP INTO THE DEEPLY-MIXED
   BOUNDARY LAYER.

   ..JEWELL/CORFIDI.. 04/05/2016


   ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...

   LAT...LON   38529924 39509765 40399685 40809637 40999573 40899513
               40589478 39939463 39869463 39149466 38309506 37949537
               37409675 37269790 37269855 37279883 37599939 37829957
               38199956 38529924 

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Page last modified: April 06, 2016
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