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Mesoscale Discussion 337
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0337
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0131 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...LWR RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL
   AREAS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 67...

   VALID 171831Z - 172000Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 67
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUST POTENTIAL WITH AN
   EVOLVING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM APPEAR LIKELY TO INCREASE SOUTH OF SAN
   ANTONIO TOWARD MID/UPPER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS THROUGH 21-22Z.

   DISCUSSION...CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR COTULLA TX APPEARS TO BE IN
   THE PROCESS OF APPRECIABLE INTENSIFICATION AND INCREASING
   ORGANIZATION.   THIS IS PROBABLY BEING SUPPORTED BY ENHANCED
   VERTICAL SHEAR IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE SUBTROPICAL JET AXIS...ANS
   PERHAPS FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN
   EMBEDDED SPEED MAXIMUM WHICH THE LATEST RAPID REFRESH SUGGESTS WILL
   NOSE EAST NORTHEAST OF THE LOWER RIO GRANDE RIVER TOWARD 21-22Z.  

   GIVEN THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION NOW WELL UNDERWAY ACROSS
   MUCH OF SOUTHERN TEXAS...SUBSTANTIVE FURTHER UPSCALE CONVECTIVE
   GROWTH AND FORWARD PROPAGATION APPEARS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS.  THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP MID-LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES...HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER AND SIZABLE CAPE MAY BE
   SUPPORTIVE OF OCCASIONAL VERY LARGE HAIL AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
   SIGNIFICANT COLD POOL...ACCOMPANIED BY THE RISK FOR
   STRONG...DAMAGING SURFACE GUSTS.  WITH SUBSTANTIVE EASTWARD
   ACCELERATION OF THE EVOLVING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM PROBABLE...TIMING
   INTO MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL AREAS...NEAR/NORTH OF CORPUS CHRISTI
   THROUGH PALACIOS...POSSIBLY AT LEAST SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
   HOUSTON METRO AREA...REMAIN A BIT UNCLEAR.  BUT AN ADDITIONAL
   WATCH...OR EXTENSION OF WW 67 MAY BE NEEDED WITHIN A COUPLE OF
   HOURS.

   ..KERR.. 04/17/2015


   ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...

   LAT...LON   28849937 29109846 29459549 28749582 27939748 27799841
               27739954 28180015 28849937 

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Page last modified: April 17, 2015
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