Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 338
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 338 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0338
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0240 PM CDT WED APR 06 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEASTERN IL...FAR SOUTHWESTERN IN...WESTERN
   KY...WESTERN TN...NORTHERN MS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 061940Z - 062145Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF A FEW SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND SMALL
   HAIL WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS...BUT A WEATHER WATCH IS LIKELY NOT NEEDED.

   DISCUSSION...STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG AN ELONGATING MID-LEVEL
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD-FRONT IS CONTRIBUTING TO
   THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DESPITE RATHER MEAGER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
   AND LIMITED INSOLATION THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
   IN ADDITION TO THE CONVECTION CURRENTLY EXPANDING ALONG AND AHEAD OF
   THE COLD-FRONT...A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND SEPARATE CONFLUENCE LINE
   DEPICTED IN THE MCD GRAPHIC ARE EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO ADDITIONAL
   THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS
   AND HAIL IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS IS MOSTLY LIMITED TO THE NARROW
   REGION BETWEEN THE COLD FRONT AND THE CONFLUENCE LINE AS A REGION OF
   RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AIR IS PERSISTING OVER FAR NORTHEAST
   MISSISSIPPI INTO NORTHWEST ALABAMA AND WEST-CENTRAL TENNESSEE.
   REGARDING THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE MCD AREA WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER
   DEWPOINTS REMAIN THE 40S...ALTHOUGH MOISTURE AND LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES ARE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...STRONG 850-700 MB FLOW OF 50-70 KT
   COULD CONTRIBUTE TO SEVERE GUSTS IN ANY OF THE STRONGER
   DOWNDRAFTS...AS SUGGESTED BY RECENT CONVECTION-ALLOWING GUIDANCE.
   HOWEVER...THE COVERAGE OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
   SMALL PRECLUDING THE NEED FOR A WEATHER WATCH.

   ..CONIGLIO/HART.. 04/06/2016


   ATTN...WFO...OHX...IND...PAH...MEG...JAN...

   LAT...LON   37068970 37828942 38208901 38518840 38438759 37468731
               35988812 35288835 34538849 34148872 33738923 33739023
               34259086 34899083 36169003 37068970 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: April 06, 2016
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities