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Mesoscale Discussion 338
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0338
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0306 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN OK...SW KS AND THE ERN OK/TX
   PANHANDLES

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 172006Z - 172130Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE
   EVENING HOURS FROM SOUTHWEST KS INTO WESTERN OK AND THE EASTERN
   OK/TX PANHANDLES. IF STORMS DEVELOP...STRONG WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE
   THE MAIN THREATS. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED.

   DISCUSSION...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S
   THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE SURFACE DRYLINE. EARLIER CLOUD COVER
   ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MCD AREA HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD AND THE AIRMASS
   HAS BEEN RECOVERING...WITH SBCAPE NEAR 1000-1500 J/KG PER 19Z
   MESOANALYSIS. AREA VAD WIND PROFILES SHOWED SOMEWHAT WEAK LOW LEVEL
   SHEAR WITH SFC-3KM SHEAR AROUND 25 KT. FURTHERMORE...THE AREA
   REMAINS REMOVED FROM STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT. AS A
   RESULT...CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE STRUGGLING TO INITIATE WITH
   SOMEWHAT RAGGED LOOKING TCU OFF THE DRYLINE IN THE EASTERN TX
   PANHANDLE AND SOME SLOWLY INCREASING RADAR ECHOS OVER HARPER AND
   WOODS COUNTY IN NW OK. WITH A FEW MORE HOURS OF HEATING TO
   GO...FURTHER DESTABILIZATION IS POSSIBLE AND A FEW CELLS COULD
   DEVELOP IN WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. SHOULD
   THESE STORMS DEVELOP...STRONG WINDS AND SOME HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN
   THREAT. GIVEN QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN CONVECTIVE INITIATION
   AND COVERAGE THE NEED FOR A WATCH IS NOT CLEAR. AS SUCH...CONVECTIVE
   TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POTENTIAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
   THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

   ..LEITMAN/HART.. 04/17/2015


   ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...

   LAT...LON   34870133 38690194 39090104 39019958 38409846 37519808
               36309803 35699830 34979882 34429932 34430014 34330083
               34380129 34870133 

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Page last modified: April 17, 2015
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