MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0338
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1024 AM CDT SAT MAR 30 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...OK...AR...TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 301524Z - 301700Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...ISOLATED STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF SMALL HAIL/GUSTY WINDS
   EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SOUTHEAST ACROSS PARTS OF ERN OK THIS MORNING.
   ACTIVITY MAY SPREAD INTO PORTIONS OF NERN TX/SWRN AR BY NOON. AT THE
   MOMENT...A WATCH DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE NEEDED FOR THIS ACTIVITY
   GIVEN ITS ISOLATED NATURE AND MARGINAL SEVERE POTENTIAL.
   
   DISCUSSION...TSTMS HAVE CROSSED TULSA AREA IN THE LAST HOUR AND
   APPEAR TO HAVE TAKEN ON A BIT MORE OF A LINEAR STRUCTURE TRACKING TO
   THE SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 25-30KT. ACTIVITY APPEARS LINKED TO A WEAK
   MIDLEVEL DISTURBANCE SPREADING SEWD ACROSS THE REGION. CONVECTION
   HAS ENTERED INTO A SOMEWHAT MORE SUPPORTIVE REGIME ASSOCIATED WITH
   STRONGER MASS INFLOW AND WARM ADVECTION ON THE NOSE OF A WEAK LOW
   LEVEL JET ACROSS OK AND THE RED RIVER. IN ADDITION...MODERATE
   MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES SAMPLED BY MORNING OUN SOUNDING INDICATE
   SUFFICIENT CAPE...ALBEIT ROOTED ALOFT...TO SUSTAIN AND POSSIBLY AID
   ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS/TOWERS AS WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT
   SPREADS SEWD COINCIDENT WITH DIURNAL HEATING. WHILE ENVIRONMENT
   SHOULD REMAIN MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTION...SEVERE HAIL WIND
   POTENTIAL CURRENTLY APPEARS LOW GIVEN MODEST CAPE...WEAK
   FORCING...AND ELEVATED NATURE OF THE STORMS.
   
   ..CARBIN/CORFIDI.. 03/30/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...
   
   LAT...LON   33499407 33019480 33179555 33629600 34249654 34919683
               35209673 35499603 35579575 35579525 35059466 34639439
               33499407