MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0339
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0146 PM CDT SAT MAR 30 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...KS...MO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 301846Z - 302015Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...TSTMS...A FEW WITH HAIL AND POSSIBLY STRONG WINDS...APPEAR
   INCREASINGLY LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS ERN KS AND WRN MO THROUGH THE
   AFTERNOON. A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED OVER THIS AREA SHORTLY.
   
   DISCUSSION...SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE GETTING
   UNDERWAY IN A ZONE OF MODEST WARM ADVECTION ACROSS ERN KS THIS
   AFTERNOON. WHILE FORCING FOR STRONGER ASCENT REMAINS SUBTLE...A
   MID/UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK TRAVERSING KS ATTM MAY BE AIDING
   DEEP-LAYER CIRCULATION ATOP A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT
   SITUATED NEAR AND EAST OF EMP. BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING ACROSS SCNTRL
   AND SERN KS HAS BOOSTED WARM SECTOR MCLAPE TO AT LEAST 1000 J PER KG
   AND INHIBITION HAS WEAKENED PER 12Z WRF-ARW SOUNDINGS ADJUSTED FOR
   CURRENT SFC CONDITIONS. STORMS ARE EXPECTED INCREASE NEAR THE FRONT
   AND SFC LOW/TROUGH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND WILL EXIST
   WITHIN AN ADEQUATELY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT FOR UPDRAFT
   PERSISTENCE/ROTATION. GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND STEEP MID
   LEVEL LAPSE RATES...LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY HAZARD FROM
   THIS ACTIVITY AND WATCH IS POSSIBLE IF STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
   CONTINUE TO INCREASE.
   
   ..CARBIN/CORFIDI.. 03/30/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...
   
   LAT...LON   37369625 38019717 38429682 38939565 39089486 39059432
               38829367 38479350 37999359 37729364 37349381 37099429
               37099545 37369625