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Mesoscale Discussion 340
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0340
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0759 PM CDT WED APR 06 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN AL...FAR W-CNTRL/NW GA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 070059Z - 070300Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
   WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED
   CLOSELY BUT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO LOW TO
   MERIT WW ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...RECENT RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS THREE LINES OF CONVECTION
   MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF MS AND AL...EACH ASSOCIATED WITH DIFFERENT
   SURFACE FEATURES. WESTERNMOST STORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
   FRONT...STORMS FROM N-CNTRL AL SWWD INTO W-CNTRL AL ARE ASSOCIATED
   WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH...AND THE EASTERNMOST STORMS ARE
   ASSOCIATED WITH CONFLUENCE OF THE SURFACE WINDS. HIGHEST SVR THREAT
   WILL BE RELATED TO THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AS IT CONTINUES TO PUSH
   SEWD INTO THE MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   CNTRL AND ERN AL. INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE FACTOR
   LIMITING A GREATER SVR THREAT WITH THE EXPECTATION FOR MLCAPE TO
   REMAIN BELOW 500 J PER KG. EVEN WITH THIS LIMITED INSTABILITY...A
   FAVORABLE WIND PROFILE WILL SUPPORT A FEW ROTATING UPDRAFTS CAPABLE
   OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED HAIL. 

   FARTHER E...LEAD STORMS ON THE AL/GA BORDER SUPPORTED BY CONFLUENCE
   OF THE SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE NEWD INTO AN ENVIRONMENT
   CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S AND LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY.
   THIS HOSTILE CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY LEAD A GRADUAL
   WEAKENING OF THAT ACTIVITY. STORMS TO THE S AND W /IN CALHOUN AND
   TALLADEGA COUNTIES/ MAY BE FAR ENOUGH W TO INTERSECT THE BETTER
   MOISTURE /AND RESULTING INSTABILITY/ AS IT RETURNS NWD INTO W-CNTRL
   GA...RESULTING IN AN ISOLATED HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT.

   ..MOSIER/THOMPSON.. 04/07/2016


   ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

   LAT...LON   33718482 32978448 32628441 32338450 31938489 31818516
               31698555 31688578 31738648 31798679 31978717 32508744
               33378708 34088624 34228558 34008501 33718482 

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Page last modified: April 07, 2016
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