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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0340
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0221 PM CDT SAT MAR 30 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NERN TX AND NRN LA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 301921Z - 302045Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SVR TSTMS POSING A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. IN ADDITION...A TORNADO
OR TWO IS ALSO POSSIBLE. A WW WILL BE COORDINATED WITH LOCAL NWS
OFFICES SHORTLY.
DISCUSSION...WIDELY SCTD TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NERN TX AND NRN
LA IN THE WAKE OF AN UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX NOW CROSSING THE LOWER MS
RIVER. THIS REGION IS ALSO JUST SOUTH OF A STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. DIURNAL HEATING HAS RESULTED IN SBCAPE OF AROUND 1000
J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40 KTS WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES
AND 0-1 KM SRH VALUES OF 150-200 M2/S2 NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW-LEVEL ROTATION. A WW IS
LIKELY PRIOR TO 21Z.
..BUNTING/CORFIDI.. 03/30/2013
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...
LAT...LON 33859588 34149546 34139510 33789448 33459424 32959375
32679304 32429223 31949147 31609176 31289179 31309358
31419463 31829542 32559569 33859588
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