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Mesoscale Discussion 341
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0341
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0505 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN CO...WRN KS...SWRN NEB

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 172205Z - 180030Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR
   THE POSSIBLE ISSUANCE OF A TORNADO WATCH.

   DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR LOOPS INDICATE A SMALL MIDLEVEL IMPULSE
   ADVANCING THROUGH THE ERN SEMICIRCLE OF A BROAD CLOSED CYCLONE
   CENTERED OVER THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES. ASCENT PRECEDING THIS FEATURE
   IS REFLECTED BY SFC PRESSURE FALLS ON THE ORDER OF 2 MB PER 2 HRS
   ACROSS PARTS OF ERN CO...WHERE A SFC CYCLONE IS ANALYZED W OF LIMON.
   A SFC TROUGH/CONFLUENCE AXIS EXTENDS SE OF THE SFC CYCLONE ALONG
   WHICH CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DIURNALLY INCREASE. AN ADDITIONAL
   INCREASE IN THE COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF CONVECTION OWING TO THE
   LARGE-SCALE ASCENT MAY OCCUR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH
   THE ACTIVITY SPREADING NWD/NEWD. N OF THE SFC TROUGH...CONVECTIVELY
   PROCESSED AIR IS NOT PARTICULARLY WARM...BUT IS MOIST WITH DEWPOINTS
   IN THE UPPER 40S TO THE MIDDLE 50S. WITH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
   IN PLACE...AND AREAS OF INSOLATION BOLSTERING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES...THE PRESENCE OF 500-1500 J/KG MLCAPE WILL INCREASE THE
   POTENTIAL FOR ROBUST UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF SVR HAIL. DESPITE
   RELATIVELY MODEST MIDLEVEL FLOW...BACKED ESE/SE SFC WINDS SHOULD
   ENHANCE STREAMWISE VORTICITY FOR SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY
   WITH ENHANCED VERTICAL VORTICITY AND SMALL TEMP-DEWPOINTS SPREADS
   NEAR THE SFC TROUGH.

   ..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 04/17/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

   LAT...LON   41030390 40920129 39240004 38140010 37870070 38850260
               38970283 39390394 40080433 41030390 

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Page last modified: April 18, 2015
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