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Mesoscale Discussion 342
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0342
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0322 AM CDT THU APR 07 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN AND PIEDMONT

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 070822Z - 071045Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS --ASSOCIATED WITH A
   STRONGLY FORCED SQUALL LINE-- WILL PROBABLY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT
   FEW HOURS.  A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A BROKEN SQUALL LINE WITH THE NRN
   FRACTURED SEGMENT NEAR CLT AND A SRN SEGMENT EXTENDING FROM 25 MI NE
   OF CAE SSWD TO 40 MI S OF AGS.  A FRACTURED COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED
   OVER WRN NC EXTENDING SWD INTO THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY AT 08Z AND
   HAS INCREASINGLY BECOME SPATIALLY JUXTAPOSED WITH THE CONVECTIVE
   LINE.  A NARROW PLUME OF UPPER 50S DEWPOINTS HAS INFILTRATED SRN SC
   IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE LINE WHEREAS FARTHER N AND E RETARDED
   LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN HAS ONLY LED TO LOWER TO MID 50S DEWPOINTS
   FROM THE I-95 CORRIDOR TO THE COAST.  

   STRONG MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT --ASSOCIATED WITH DCVA
   WITH A VORT MAX OVER THE GA/SC VICINITY-- WILL PROGRESS EWD OVER THE
   CAROLINAS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.  DIFFERENTIAL TEMPERATURE
   ADVECTION WITH COOLING TEMPS TO AOB -19 DEG C AT H5 AND SLIGHT
   THETA-E GAINS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ACT TO WEAKLY DESTABILIZE
   THE AIRMASS EARLY THIS MORNING.  CURRENTLY THINKING THE GREATEST
   POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE OVER THE
   ERN NC COASTAL PLAIN.  HOWEVER...A RECENTLY MEASURED 44-KT WIND GUST
   AT KCAE AT LEAST SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
   MAY OCCUR ON A LOCALIZED BASIS SOONER RATHER THAN LATER WITH THE
   MOST INTENSE PORTIONS OF THE SQUALL LINE.

   ..SMITH/EDWARDS.. 04/07/2016


   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...

   LAT...LON   35277618 32987943 33098043 33428108 34398066 35627834
               36027722 35857639 35277618 

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Page last modified: April 07, 2016
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