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Mesoscale Discussion 342
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0342
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0541 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...S TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 67...68...

   VALID 172241Z - 180015Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
   67...68...CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...SEVERE RISK SHOULD PERSIST BEYOND 00Z EXPIRATION OF WW 67
   AND MAY DEVELOP INTO DEEP S TX THROUGH LATE EVENING. A NEW WW
   ISSUANCE IS LIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...PRIMARY NEAR-TERM SEVERE RISK WILL EXIST IN THE FORM OF
   DAMAGING WINDS WITH A LEAD CLUSTER CROSSING FROM S-CNTRL INTO SE TX
   AT AROUND 45-KT FORWARD MOTION. ADDITIONAL UPSTREAM CELLS SHOULD
   CONTINUE TO REGENERATE ALONG/N OF THE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
   THAT STRETCHED FROM SOUTHERN BEE TO NORTHERN WEBB COUNTY AS OF
   2230Z...AIDED BY LARGE-SCALE ASCENT VIA A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE
   APPROACHING FROM NRN CHIHUAHUA. DESPITE THE 21Z HRRR PROLIFIC
   OVER-FORECAST OF CONVECTION OVER CHIHUAHUA AT PRESENT...2215Z
   VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES INDICATE A ROBUST UPDRAFT AROUND 55
   WSW LRD. 

   MODIFIED 18Z CRP/BRO RAOBS SUGGEST MLCAPE OF 2500-3500 J/KG IS
   PROBABLE ACROSS DEEP S TX WITH MINIMAL MLCIN. WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR
   HAVING INCREASED TO AROUND 60-KT PER CRP/DFX VWP DATA...SUPERCELLS
   PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WINDS SHOULD BE A THREAT WELL INTO
   THE EVENING. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS MODEST AND PROGGED TO
   REMAIN SO...ENHANCED 0-1 KM SRH ALONG THE N SIDE OF THE OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY COULD SUPPORT A TORNADO OR TWO AS WELL WITH ANY
   WELL-DEVELOPED SUPERCELL.

   ..GRAMS/CORFIDI.. 04/17/2015


   ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...BRO...

   LAT...LON   28530051 28879947 29039820 29039771 29359719 29639671
               29819600 29729558 29469537 29109542 28039706 27049745
               26689768 26519828 26479883 26649957 27509981 28530051 

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Page last modified: April 18, 2015
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