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Mesoscale Discussion 343
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0343
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0625 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK...WRN AR

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 74...

   VALID 132325Z - 140030Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 74 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...TORNADO WATCH CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN/SRN OK. 
   NEW TORNADO WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED BY 14/00Z ACROSS PARTS OF SERN
   OK/WRN AR.

   DISCUSSION...SFC COLD FRONT IS SURGING SWD ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS
   EVENING WITH MATURING SQUALL LINE NOW DEPICTING THE LEADING EDGE OF
   POLAR AIR MASS FROM EAST OF JLN...SWWD SOUTH OF TUL...INTO STEPHENS
   COUNTY OK WHERE TRAILING SUPERCELL HAS STRENGTHENED.  THIS TRAILING
   SUPERCELL HAS INTENSIFIED NEAR THE COLD FRONT/DRY LINE INTERSECTION
   AND NEW UPDRAFTS MAY YET EVOLVE TO NEAR THE RED RIVER OVER THE NEXT
   HOUR OR SO.  GIVEN THE QUALITY MOISTURE/INSTABILITY THAT RESIDES
   OVER SERN OK THERE IS REASON TO BELIEVE THE FRONTAL MCS SHOULD
   ADVANCE INTO WRN PARTS OF AR LATER THIS EVENING.  SHEAR PROFILES
   REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY WITH MORE DISCRETE
   PRE-FRONTAL UPDRAFTS.  HOWEVER...DOMINANT STORM MODE SHOULD REMAIN
   LINEAR AND CONFINED TO THE COLD FRONT.

   DESPITE THE EXPECTED DOMINANT SQUALL LINE ISOLATED EMBEDDED
   SUPERCELLS HAVE EVOLVED WITHIN WARM ADVECTION BAND OF CONVECTION
   ACROSS AR AND NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED TO ACCOUNT
   FOR THIS THREAT ALONG WITH NEW DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS EVENING AHEAD
   OF COLD FRONT.

   ..DARROW.. 04/13/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN...

   LAT...LON   33379894 37069777 37079503 35829549 35759237 33699292
               33779619 33369633 33379894 

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Page last modified: April 14, 2014
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