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Mesoscale Discussion 343
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0343
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0332 AM CDT THU APR 07 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NW FL.

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 070832Z - 071100Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SCATTERED TSTMS MAY POSE THREAT FOR STG TO MRGL-SVR
   GUSTS...PRIMARILY W OF I-75 ACROSS FL AND N OF PIE.  BRIEF/SMALL
   TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT EITHER...BUT ENVIRONMENT IS NOT AS
   FAVORABLE AS FARTHER N AND EARLIER IN SERN AL...AND THIS THREAT IS
   VERY MRGL/CONDITIONAL ON STORM-SCALE PROCESSES.  AS SUCH...WW IS NOT
   ANTICIPATED ATTM.

   DISCUSSION...BAND OF TSTMS HAS DEVELOPED AND PERSISTED OVER NERN
   GULF ALONG WARM-SECTOR CONVERGENCE AXIS...LOCATED AT 815Z FROM 
   CONFLUENCE WITH THIS FEATURE IS QUITE EVIDENT IN SFC STREAMLINE
   ANALYSES INCORPORATING WLY/WNWLY FLOW AT OFFSHORE BUOYS AND
   LIGHT...SLY/SELY WINDS INLAND.  MODIFIED RAOBS AND RAP FCST
   SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/THETAE OFFSETTING
   WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT TO GENERATE MLCAPE 250-500 J/KG NEAR
   COAST...AMIDST 35-45 KT EFFECTIVE-SHEAR MAGNITUDE.  SUBTLE MAX IN
   EFFECTIVE SRH IS EVIDENT JUST E OF COAST WHERE BACKED SFC WINDS AOB
   5 KT ARE OBSERVED...INDUCING FAVORABLE 0-1-KM SHEAR BENEATH 40-KT
   LLJ SAMPLED BY TBW VWP.  HOWEVER THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS BECOME
   LESS FAVORABLE EWD.  ACTIVITY SHOULD UNDERGO GRADUAL WEAKENING WITH
   INLAND EXTENT AS PROGRESSIVELY LOWER-THETAE AIR MASS CHARACTERIZES
   INFLOW LAYER...WITH SFC TEMPS AROUND 5-8 DEG F COOLER AND DEW POINTS
   4-6 DEG LOWER THAN IN MARITIME CONVECTION-GENESIS REGIME.

   ..EDWARDS.. 04/07/2016


   ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...TAE...

   LAT...LON   27858283 28078281 28218283 28258274 28678264 28888272
               29058278 29128281 29158295 29118306 29298301 29548299
               29428260 29298230 28938213 28658213 28138236 27738270
               27858283 

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Page last modified: April 07, 2016
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