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Mesoscale Discussion 344
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0344
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0657 AM CDT THU APR 07 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC AND OUTER BANKS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 071157Z - 071400Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING
   WITH A SQUALL LINE AS IT MOVES EWD TOWARDS THE OUTER BANKS.

   DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC AT 1155Z SHOWS A QLCS EXTENDING FROM 15 MI
   SE RWI TO 15 MI SSE CRE AND MOVING NEWD AT 45 KT.  THE AIRMASS ALONG
   THE IMMEDIATE NC COAST HAS ONLY GRADUALLY DESTABILIZED BUT DEWPOINTS
   HAVE SLOWLY RISEN INTO THE MID-UPPER 50S AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
   LINE.  AS THE MID-LEVEL VORT MAX PIVOTS ENEWD OVER THE REGION DURING
   THE MORNING HOURS...FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT COUPLED
   WITH A WEAKLY BUOYANT AND STRONGLY SHEARED LOW LEVELS MAY SUPPORT AN
   INCREASING RISK FOR STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS LOCALIZED
   WINDS AROUND 60 MPH.  GIVEN THE EXPECTED COVERAGE OF THE WIND THREAT
   AND MARGINAL OVERALL CHARACTER OF THE ANTICIPATED GUSTS...CURRENTLY
   THINKING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

   ..SMITH/EDWARDS.. 04/07/2016


   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...ILM...

   LAT...LON   35057792 36247580 35277534 33717832 35057792 

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Page last modified: April 07, 2016
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