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Mesoscale Discussion 344
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0344
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0754 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...N AND NE TX...NWRN LA...FAR SERN OK...SWRN AR

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 76...

   VALID 140054Z - 140200Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 76 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...SVR THREAT ACROSS N TX THROUGH THE LATE EVENING WILL BE
   FOCUSED ALONG CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
   FARTHER E...TSTMS ARE INCREASING WITHIN A LOW-LEVEL WAA AND MAY POSE
   AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR A DMGG WIND GUST OR TORNADO.

   DISCUSSION...ISOLATED DISCRETE STORMS THAT DEVELOPED AND MOVED E OF
   A DRYLINE HAVE WEAKENED SUBSTANTIALLY...WITH EXCEPTION OF A LONE
   SUPERCELL OVER LAMPASAS AND CORYELL COUNTIES TX. THIS TREND IS
   LIKELY DUE IN PART TO A WEAK CAPPING INVERSION EVIDENT ON 00Z FWD
   RAOB. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING SWWD ALONG A FAST-MOVING
   COLD FRONT...WITH TSTMS MORE RECENTLY CROSSING THE RED RIVER FROM
   CLAY TO COOKE COUNTIES. SUBSTANTIAL LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL CONVERGENCE
   SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUSTAIN STRONG UPDRAFTS DESPITE THE PRESENCE
   OF CINH. THE POTENTIAL FOR DMGG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...AND PERHAPS A
   TORNADO SHOULD ACTIVITY REMAIN QUASI-DISCRETE...WILL PERSIST.

   FARTHER E...AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION HAS OCCURRED ACROSS W-CNTRL LA
   WITHIN A LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME...DISPLAYING OCCASIONAL SIGNS OF
   ORGANIZATION. CYCLONICALLY CURVED HODOGRAPHS AMIDST STRONG AMBIENT
   LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WERE SAMPLED BY REGIONAL VWP DATA.
   PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR ACROSS THIS AREA IS THE MARGINAL SFC-BASED
   INSTABILITY AND NEBULOUS FORCING FOR ASCENT...BUT AN ISOLATED DMGG
   WIND OR BRIEF TORNADO THREAT CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

   ..ROGERS.. 04/14/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LZK...LCH...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...OUN...

   LAT...LON   33279235 32169204 31499214 31179312 31479389 31599496
               31549584 31299679 31139772 31189827 31879857 32479880
               33119884 33659833 33789794 34369706 34579658 34469479
               34229405 34009360 33649317 33279235 

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Page last modified: April 14, 2014
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