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Mesoscale Discussion 345
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0345
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0726 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE TX/OK PANHANDLE AND FAR SWRN KS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 180026Z - 180230Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY EXIST INTO
   THE MID/LATE EVENING...THOUGH WW ISSUANCE IS NOT EXPECTED.

   DISCUSSION...A LOBE OF DEEP ASCENT AND RELATED ACCAS ARE APPROACHING
   A WWD-ADVANCING DRYLINE ANALYZED FROM FAR SWRN KS INTO THE CNTRL TX
   PANHANDLE. AS MOISTURE E OF THE DRYLINE SPREADS OVER A DIURNALLY
   DEEPENED PBL FEATURING STEEP TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES...AND DEEP
   ASCENT NEARS...DEEPENING CONVECTIVE TOWERS AND ISOLATED LIGHTNING
   ARE BEGINNING TO EVOLVE ALONG THE DRYLINE. ISOLATED STRONG TO
   PERHAPS SVR STORMS MAY BLOSSOM FROM THIS ACTIVITY...WITH SVR
   HAIL/WIND POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...SUCH ACTIVITY WILL EVENTUALLY
   INTERCEPT AIR THAT HAS BEEN SUBJECTED TO MORE EFFECTIVE CONVECTIVE
   PROCESSING TO THE E...WITH STATIC STABILITY REINFORCED BY NOCTURNAL
   COOLING. THIS WILL RESULT IN A LIMITED SPATIOTEMPORAL EXTENT OF SVR
   POTENTIAL. REGARDLESS...TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

   ..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 04/18/2015


   ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...

   LAT...LON   35430173 37200193 37580132 36690071 35560071 35130133
               35430173 

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Page last modified: April 18, 2015
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