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Mesoscale Discussion 345
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0345
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1036 AM CDT THU APR 07 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...DELMARVA TO SOUTHERN NJ

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 071536Z - 071730Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A STRONG WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS BANDS OF SHOWERS
   ADVANCE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE DELMARVA PENINSULA AND
   SOUTHERN NJ THROUGH 18Z...WHEN THIS CONVECTION SHOULD THEN MOVE
   OFFSHORE.

   DISCUSSION...AT 1515Z...MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY AND INDIVIDUAL WSR-88D
   SITES IN THE SOUTHEAST PA/MD AND DELMARVA AREA SHOWED LOW-TOPPED
   BANDS OF SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST PA TO EASTERN MD WITH THE
   LATTER AREA HAVING SHOWERS RECENTLY MOVING ONSHORE FROM THE
   CHESAPEAKE BAY.  DESPITE VERY WEAK INSTABILITY AND WEAK DEEP-LAYER
   LAPSE RATES ACROSS THIS REGION...STRONG FORCING MECHANISMS ACROSS
   THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES ATTENDANT TO 1/ A COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   AND 2/ WITHIN THE EXIT REGION OF A STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL JET MAX
   MOVING THOUGH THE TN VALLEY ARE SUPPORTING THE LINEAR STRUCTURES. 
   THE WEAK BUOYANCY WITH EASTWARD EXTENT WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT
   PARCELS FROM REACHING TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR CHARGE SEPARATION
   AND TEND TO INHIBIT THE OVERALL STRENGTH OF THE SHOWERS.  THE BANDS
   OF SHOWERS ARE MOVING TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AT 35-40 KT...AND GIVEN
   THESE SPEEDS A STRONG WIND GUST OR TWO MAY REACH THE SURFACE...
   THOUGH THE OVERALL WEAK SURFACE-3 KM LAPSE RATES SUGGEST THE
   COVERAGE OF THIS THREAT WILL BE VERY LOW.

   ..PETERS/HART.. 04/07/2016


   ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...

   LAT...LON   37827622 38477618 38967620 39417644 39577607 39647579
               39717518 39717445 39567406 38857470 38297499 37787528
               37467564 37427598 37487614 37827622 

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Page last modified: April 07, 2016
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